Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir Prediction, Tips & Odds
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir
Match Preview
The model favours Beşiktaş to win against Başakşehir, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Beşiktaş currently sits in second place in the Süper Lig standings, having secured 15 points from their first seven matches. With five wins and only two losses, their offensive capabilities are evident, having scored 16 goals while conceding 8, resulting in a goal difference of +8. Their recent form is also strong, with four victories in their last five matches, indicating a team in good shape. In contrast, Başakşehir is positioned 11th with just 8 points from their seven games. Their record of two wins, two draws, and three losses shows inconsistency, and they have struggled to find the back of the net with only 10 goals scored, while their defence has been slightly leaky with 11 goals conceded. Their recent form reflects this struggle, as they have only managed one win in their last five matches, with two draws and two losses. The model provides a win probability of approximately 60% for Beşiktaş, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is that Beşiktaş has a strong chance of winning based on their current form and league position. However, a potential caveat is that they could be caught off guard by Başakşehir's counter-attacking play if they become complacent. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.2% probability.
Beşiktaş have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Beşiktaş win as the most likely scoreline at 12.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Beşiktaş clean sheets, in line with their 35% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Beşiktaş are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.34 | 5.10 | 7.50 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 1.37 | 5.34 | 7.01 | 1.40 | 2.95 | — | — | |
| 1.34 | 4.84 | 5.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.28 | 5.50 | 9.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.37 | 5.54 | 8.15 | 1.42 | 2.81 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
Betano | 1.35 | 4.80 | 8.25 | 1.44 | 2.87 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Beşiktaş leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Beşiktaş and Başakşehir, Beşiktaş has won 4 times, there have been 3 draws, and Başakşehir has also won 3 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, as seen in the four draws and the narrow margins of victory. Notably, the last three encounters have all resulted in one-goal differences, demonstrating a pattern of tight contests. The last time Başakşehir won against Beşiktaş was in September 2022, suggesting a slight advantage for Beşiktaş in recent meetings.
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 16 | WWWDL |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 16 | WWLDW |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 | WDWLL |
| 16 |  Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 | LDDWL |
| 17 |  Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 23 | -21 | 3 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBeşiktaş have won 16 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Crystal Palace 2-2 and beat Kocaelispor 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 24W 8D 11L from the last 43 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Başakşehir have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Konyaspor 0-0 and lost to Amed 5-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 9L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
5 playersBeşiktaş3
Başakşehir2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
U. Ozturk has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by U. Ozturk to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Beşiktaş have averaged 7.4 corners per match at home; Başakşehir 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Beşiktaş have generated 2.20 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 56% of them. They put 6.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Beşiktaş player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
