Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction, Tips & Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown
Match Preview
The model favours Beijing Guoan to win against Hangzhou Greentown, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Beijing Guoan currently sits in 7th place in the league, having played 18 matches with a record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, accumulating 22 points. Their recent form has been impressive, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches, highlighting a strong offensive performance with 30 goals scored and a positive goal difference of 6. In contrast, Hangzhou Greentown finds themselves in 8th place, just one point behind Guoan with 21 points from 19 matches, including 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses. Their recent form shows a struggle, managing only one win in their last five matches, which includes two draws and two losses. This has contributed to a negative goal difference of -5, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for Beijing Guoan, with the projected score being 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that Hangzhou Greentown could capitalize on any defensive lapses from Guoan, especially given their need to secure points to climb the standings. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team details their in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Beijing Guoan have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Beijing Guoan win as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Beijing Guoan are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.55 | 4.40 | 4.60 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 2.70 | |
| 1.53 | 4.55 | 4.85 | 1.28 | 3.05 | 1.39 | 2.72 | |
| 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 1.29 | 3.30 | 1.36 | 2.88 | |
| 1.57 | 4.85 | 5.02 | 1.34 | 3.30 | — | — | |
| 1.49 | 3.91 | 4.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 4.33 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.25 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.58 | 4.69 | 5.00 | 1.31 | 3.38 | 1.39 | 2.77 | |
| 1.60 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 1.33 | 2.95 | 1.40 | 2.65 | |
Betano | 1.57 | 4.35 | 4.70 | 1.34 | 3.00 | 1.42 | 2.67 |
Superbet | 1.56 | 4.45 | 4.60 | 1.33 | 3.05 | 1.41 | 2.70 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.50 | 4.80 | 1.30 | 3.25 | 1.36 | 2.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Beijing Guoan leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown stands at 4 wins for Beijing Guoan, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Hangzhou Greentown over the last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in narrow margins, such as the 3-4 and 1-2 results. There have been four matches that finished in draws or without goals, suggesting a tendency for tightly contested games. The last victory for Hangzhou Greentown was in September 2023, indicating a relatively recent success against Beijing Guoan. Overall, the matches display a balance, with neither side dominating decisively.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 45 | LDDDD |
| 2 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 22 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 32 | DWWDL |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 31 | WLWDL |
| 5 |  Shandong Luneng | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 30 | WWLLW |
| 6 | Beijing Guoan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 29 | WWDDW |
| 8 | Hangzhou Greentown | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 24 | LWDWL |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 17 | LWWWW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 15 | DWWLL |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBeijing Guoan have won 9 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-0 and beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 8L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Hangzhou Greentown have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 and drew with Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 12D 10L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBeijing Guoan4-4-2Confirmed
Hangzhou Greentown4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersBeijing Guoan
No reported absences
Hangzhou Greentown
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Beijing Guoan have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Hangzhou Greentown 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Beijing Guoan have generated 2.55 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Beijing Guoan player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
