SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng Prediction, Tips & Odds
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng
Match Preview
The model favours Shandong Luneng to win against Shanghai SIPG, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Shandong Luneng currently sits in 6th place in the league, having accumulated 24 points from 19 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid offensive display, scoring 35 goals, although they have conceded 34, resulting in a goal difference of just 1. With three wins in their last five matches, they appear to be finding form at a crucial point in the season. In contrast, Shanghai SIPG is struggling in 13th place with 16 points from 18 matches. Their form has been inconsistent, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games. While they have managed to score 28 goals, their defence has been relatively strong, conceding only 26, giving them a positive goal difference of 2. However, their overall performance has not translated into points, highlighting their difficulties this season. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Shandong Luneng, with the projected score of 2-1. One caveat for this prediction is the potential for an unexpected turnaround from Shanghai SIPG, who could capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.1% probability.
SHANGHAI SIPG have been the stronger side, winning 28% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 SHANGHAI SIPG win as the most likely scoreline at 12.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. SHANGHAI SIPG are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shandong Luneng| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.84 | 4.00 | 3.35 | 1.35 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 2.85 | |
| 1.84 | 4.05 | 3.48 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.33 | 2.96 | |
| 1.85 | 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.29 | 3.30 | 1.30 | 3.20 | |
| 1.87 | 4.32 | 3.64 | 1.36 | 3.22 | — | — | |
| 1.86 | 3.37 | 2.89 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 1.85 | 4.33 | 3.30 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 1.89 | 4.16 | 3.58 | 1.34 | 3.19 | 1.33 | 3.02 | |
| 1.81 | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.32 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 2.95 | |
Betano | 1.85 | 4.10 | 3.40 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.38 | 2.82 |
Superbet | 1.85 | 4.10 | 3.40 | 1.32 | 3.10 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 4.10 | 3.40 | 1.30 | 3.25 | 1.30 | 3.13 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (SHANGHAI SIPG leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between Shanghai SIPG and Shandong Luneng shows 4 wins for SIPG, 4 draws, and 2 wins for Luneng over the last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tightly contested matches, including four draws and a mix of narrow and moderate victories. Notably, both teams have experienced wins by a single goal, while SIPG secured a 4-3 win in one of the encounters, highlighting the potential for high-scoring games. The last win for Shandong Luneng came in October 2025, suggesting they have struggled to find success against SIPG in recent fixtures.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 45 | LDDDD |
| 2 |  Dalian Zhixing | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 | WDLWW |
| 3 |  Yunnan Yukun | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 31 | WLWDL |
| 4 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 21 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 31 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  Beijing Guoan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 29 | WWDDW |
| 6 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 29 | LLDDL |
| 7 | Shandong Luneng | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 27 | WLLWL |
| 13 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 19 | LWDLW |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 17 | WWWWL |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 15 | DWWLL |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSHANGHAI SIPG have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-0 and drew with Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 10D 11L from the last 29 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Shandong Luneng have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shandong Luneng 0-1 and drew with Wuhan Three Towns 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 8L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSHANGHAI SIPG5-4-1Confirmed
Shandong Luneng5-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSHANGHAI SIPG
No reported absences
Shandong Luneng
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
SHANGHAI SIPG have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Shandong Luneng 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
SHANGHAI SIPG have generated 1.24 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 28% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. SHANGHAI SIPG player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
