Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe Prediction, Tips & Odds
Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe
Match Preview
The model favours Boca Juniors to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Union Santa Fe. Boca Juniors currently sit in second place in the Liga Profesional, having accumulated 30 points from 16 matches. Their season has been strong, with eight wins, six draws, and just two losses. A key aspect of their performance has been their solid defence, conceding only nine goals, which gives them a goal difference of 13. On the other hand, Union Santa Fe finds themselves in eighth place with 21 points from the same number of matches. Their record shows five wins, six draws, and five losses, indicating a more inconsistent season. While they have scored 24 goals, their defensive record has not been as strong, allowing 20 goals, leading to a goal difference of just four. This inconsistency may hinder their ability to secure points against a stronger side like Boca Juniors. According to the model, Boca Juniors have a 57.2% probability of winning this match, with a 26.6% chance of a draw and a 16.2% chance for Union Santa Fe. One potential caveat is that if Boca Juniors' defensive solidity falters, they could be vulnerable to Union Santa Fe's attacking players. The full methodology, which utilizes expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs this in-house model to provide insights into match outcomes.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Boca Juniors have kept a clean sheet in 43% of matches. Union Santa Fe average 1.4 goals per game.
Boca Juniors manage games at home, conceding just 0.78 goals per match. Union Santa Fe score 1.41 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Boca Juniors have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Boca Juniors win as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Boca Juniors clean sheets, in line with their 43% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Boca Juniors are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.90 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 2.05 | 1.67 | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 7.00 | 1.90 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 1.48 | 4.41 | 7.33 | 1.91 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 1.41 | 3.90 | 6.28 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 1.48 | 4.10 | 8.00 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.48 | 4.29 | 7.05 | 1.94 | 1.86 | 2.05 | 1.69 | |
Betano | 1.52 | 4.25 | 7.80 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 2.05 | 1.72 |
BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.33 | 7.00 | 1.84 | 1.83 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Union Santa Fe leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe, Boca Juniors has won 2, there have been 5 draws, and Union Santa Fe has won 3. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with a notable number of low-scoring games; five matches ended in draws or with a single goal difference. Union Santa Fe's last victory over Boca Juniors was in April 2021, suggesting that while they have had recent success, the matches have generally been closely contested. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a balanced competition with no team establishing a clear dominance.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LDWLW |
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WDWLW |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | WDWLD |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WLDWD |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 21 | DLLLL |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | WLDWD |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | WLLLL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBoca Juniors have won 14 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Talleres Cordoba 2-1 and lost to Vasco DA Gama 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 14D 9L from the last 46 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Union Santa Fe have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Boca Juniors 3-0 and lost to Talleres Cordoba 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 13L from the last 32 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBoca Juniors
No reported absences
Union Santa Fe
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Sebastian Nicolas Martinez has averaged 6.7 yellow cards per match across 3 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Boca Juniors have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Union Santa Fe 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Boca Juniors have generated 1.62 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Boca Juniors player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
