Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
Match Preview
The model favours Tigre to win against Atletico Tucuman, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tigre currently sits in 10th place in the Liga Profesional standings, having accumulated 20 points from 16 matches. Despite their position, they have struggled in recent weeks, with five consecutive losses. However, their overall goal difference of +3 indicates that they have been competitive in many of their matches, scoring 18 goals while conceding 15. Atletico Tucuman, on the other hand, is positioned 13th, with only 14 points from the same number of games. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, with three wins and eight losses. They have scored 15 goals but have conceded 20, resulting in a negative goal difference of -5. Their recent form, which includes two draws and three losses in the last five matches, suggests they are also struggling to find their footing. The model gives Tigre a win probability of approximately 55%, while Atletico Tucuman's chances stand at around 25%. One key market percentage indicates that there is a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. However, Tigre's ongoing losing streak could be a concern, as it may impact their confidence. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Tigre have kept a clean sheet in 31% of matches. Atletico Tucuman average 1.2 goals per game.
Tigre manage games at home, conceding just 0.92 goals per match. Atletico Tucuman score 1.18 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 21.1% probability.
Tigre have been the stronger side, winning 28% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Tigre win as the most likely scoreline at 21.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Tigre clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Tigre are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.67 | 3.45 | 5.40 | 2.43 | 1.44 | 2.33 | 1.52 | |
| 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.50 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.45 | 1.53 | |
| 1.67 | 3.66 | 5.49 | 2.55 | 1.53 | — | — | |
| 1.61 | 3.10 | 4.84 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.30 | 5.00 | — | — | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.70 | 3.30 | 6.25 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 1.53 | |
| 1.70 | 3.52 | 5.51 | 2.50 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.54 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.60 | 5.70 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.37 | 1.55 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.50 | 2.39 | 1.49 | 2.30 | 1.53 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (evenly matched 1-1)The head-to-head record between Tigre and Atletico Tucuman shows Tigre winning 1 match, drawing 5, and Atletico Tucuman winning 1 match from the last 7 encounters. This indicates a notably tight rivalry, with a high frequency of draws, as 71% of their matches ended level. The scorelines reflect a pattern of low-scoring games, with five matches finishing 0-0. The most recent win for Tigre came in October 2024, while Atletico Tucuman's last victory dates back to September 2018. Overall, neither team has managed to establish dominance in this matchup, making it a closely contested affair historically.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LDWLW |
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WDWLW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | WDWLD |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WLDWD |
| 10 | Tigre | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 20 | DLLLL |
| 13 | Atletico Tucuman | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 14 | LDLLL |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | WLDWD |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | WLLLL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTigre have won 8 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Banfield 1-2 and lost to Rosario Central 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 14D 14L from the last 39 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Atletico Tucuman have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Gimnasia L.P. 1-1 and drew with Independ. Rivadavia 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 11D 12L from the last 33 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTigre
No reported absences
Atletico Tucuman
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Brian Ferreyra has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Tigre have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Atletico Tucuman 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Tigre have generated 1.26 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 28% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Tigre player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
