San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys
Match Preview
The model favours San Lorenzo to secure a win against Newells Old Boys, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Currently positioned 7th in the Liga Profesional, San Lorenzo has had a mixed season with 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, accumulating 22 points. Their goal difference stands at zero, indicating a balanced defensive and offensive performance, though their recent form shows some inconsistency with two wins and three draws in the last five matches. On the other hand, Newells Old Boys sit 14th in the standings with only 15 points from their 16 matches, reflecting a challenging season. They have recorded 3 wins but have struggled defensively, conceding 27 goals and holding a negative goal difference of -12. Their recent form has been slightly better, with four draws in their last five matches, suggesting they are difficult to beat, but they lack the winning edge. The model gives San Lorenzo a win probability of around 55% for this match. The projected score is 1-0 in their favour, with a key market indicator suggesting a low-scoring affair. However, a potential caveat is San Lorenzo's inconsistency, which could be exploited by a resilient Newells side. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
San Lorenzo have kept a clean sheet in 49% of matches. Newells Old Boys average 0.9 goals per game.
San Lorenzo manage games at home, conceding just 0.81 goals per match. Newells Old Boys score 0.86 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.0% probability.
San Lorenzo have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature San Lorenzo clean sheets, in line with their 49% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. San Lorenzo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.41 | 2.76 | 3.35 | 2.66 | 1.37 | 2.20 | 1.58 | |
| 2.45 | 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.25 | 1.62 | |
| 2.58 | 2.70 | 3.43 | 2.90 | 1.41 | — | — | |
| 2.23 | 2.72 | 3.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 2.70 | 3.20 | — | — | 2.15 | 1.65 | |
| 2.50 | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 2.46 | 2.82 | 3.42 | 2.73 | 1.40 | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
Betano | 2.50 | 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.92 | 1.44 | 2.22 | 1.62 |
BetVictor | 2.40 | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.25 | 1.57 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Newells Old Boys leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between San Lorenzo and Newells Old Boys, the record stands at 2 wins for San Lorenzo, 3 wins for Newells Old Boys, and 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of close contests. Notably, three of the last encounters ended in a scoreless or low-scoring draw, highlighting a tendency for tightly contested games. Newells Old Boys has had the upper hand recently, winning three of the last five fixtures, while San Lorenzo's last victory against them was in April 2022.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LDWLW |
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WDWLW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | WDWLD |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WLDWD |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 | WWLLD |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | WLDWD |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | WLLLL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Lorenzo have won 9 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Deportivo Riestra 1-0 and beat Talleres Cordoba 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 16D 10L from the last 37 games (30% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Newells Old Boys have won 2 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Newells Old Boys 1-0 and drew with Rosario Central 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 11D 12L from the last 29 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSan Lorenzo
No reported absences
Newells Old Boys
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Luis Lobo Medina has averaged 6.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
San Lorenzo have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Newells Old Boys 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Lorenzo have generated 0.76 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 30% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Lorenzo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
