Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Tips & Odds
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama
Match Preview
The model favours a narrow win for Botafogo, projecting a scoreline of 1-0 against Vasco DA Gama. Currently positioned 12th in the Serie A standings, Botafogo has struggled with consistency this season, recording 9 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses from 28 matches. Their goal difference of -4 suggests they have been more vulnerable defensively, allowing 45 goals while scoring 41. Recent form shows they have only managed one victory in their last five matches, indicating a need for improvement if they are to secure points. In contrast, Vasco DA Gama sits in 16th place, four points adrift of Botafogo, with a record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 12 losses over 27 games. Their goal difference of -7 reflects a similar trend to Botafogo, with 34 goals scored and 41 conceded. However, Vasco's recent form has been stronger, with three wins in their last five matches, showcasing a potential turnaround that could make them a competitive side in this fixture. The model assigns a 36.6% win probability to Botafogo, a 28.5% chance of a draw, and a 34.9% likelihood of a Vasco DA Gama victory. While the home side is favoured, the caveat lies in Botafogo's recent form, which could allow Vasco to capitalize if they maintain their momentum. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
Botafogo have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Botafogo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.97 | 3.52 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.22 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 3.13 | 3.68 | 2.26 | 1.65 | 2.31 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.13 | 2.32 | 1.76 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.06 | 3.63 | 2.27 | 1.66 | 2.28 | 1.50 | 2.42 | |
Betano | 3.05 | 3.60 | 2.27 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Botafogo leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama, Botafogo has won 4 times, Vasco DA Gama has also won 3 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches; however, Botafogo has achieved more decisive victories, including two 3-0 wins. The results show a mix of narrow and wider margins, suggesting that while both teams have had their moments, Botafogo has been slightly more dominant in recent encounters. Vasco DA Gama's last win against Botafogo occurred in February 2025, highlighting a shift in the balance of success.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 11 | Botafogo | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 39 | WDLLW |
| 15 | Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 35 | LDWWW |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBotafogo have won 11 of their last 25 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Chapecoense-sc 1-0 and lost to Vasco DA Gama 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 12D 16L from the last 47 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vasco DA Gama have won 8 of their last 26 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sao Paulo 1-0 and beat Boca Juniors 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 15D 16L from the last 52 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBotafogo4-2-3-1Confirmed
Vasco DA Gama4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersBotafogo4
Vasco DA Gama4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Bruno Arleu has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Botafogo have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Vasco DA Gama 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Botafogo have generated 1.60 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Botafogo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
