Cagliari vs Bologna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cagliari vs Bologna
Match Preview
The model favours Cagliari to win against Bologna, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Cagliari is currently positioned 4th in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 12 points from 5 matches with 4 wins and just 1 loss. Their strong start to the season is underscored by a solid goal difference of +3, having scored 5 goals while conceding only 2. This defensive record highlights their ability to control games and secure results. In contrast, Bologna finds itself at the bottom of the table in 19th place, with only 2 points from 5 matches. Their season has been challenging, marked by 3 losses and 2 draws, contributing to a negative goal difference of -3. With just 3 goals scored and 6 conceded, Bologna's struggles in both attack and defense have left them without a win so far this season. According to the model, Cagliari has a high win probability, supported by their strong early-season form and Bologna's ongoing difficulties. However, one caveat is that Cagliari's form has dipped slightly, with two losses in their last five matches. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, the full methodology employed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team is available in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 35% of matches. Bologna average 1.1 goals per game.
Cagliari manage games at home, conceding just 1.13 goals per match. Bologna score 1.14 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.5% probability.
Cagliari have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Cagliari are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cagliari vs Bologna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.25 | 3.04 | 2.44 | 2.17 | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
| 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.40 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 3.27 | 2.97 | 2.56 | 2.28 | 1.68 | — | — | |
| 2.67 | 2.91 | 2.43 | 2.17 | 1.71 | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.45 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 3.35 | 3.13 | 2.52 | 2.24 | 1.76 | 1.83 | 1.89 | |
Betano | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.47 | 2.18 | 1.72 | 1.78 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.40 | 2.05 | 1.66 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bologna leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Cagliari and Bologna, Bologna leads with 6 wins, while Cagliari has won 3 times and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, but Bologna has secured more victories, including several by a margin of two goals. Cagliari's last win against Bologna was in January 2024, and since then, Bologna has won four of the last five encounters, often keeping the scores low, as seen in their recent 0-0 draw. Overall, Bologna's recent dominance suggests a more favorable historical record against Cagliari.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 19 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 15 | WDWDD |
| 5 |  Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 14 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 7 | Cagliari | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 15 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 | LWDLD |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | LLDWL |
| 19 |  Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCagliari have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Juventus 1-1 and beat Lecce 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 11L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bologna have won 10 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Lecce 1-2 and lost to Napoli 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 6D 15L from the last 36 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
1 playerCagliari1
Bologna
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Kevin Bonacina has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Kevin Bonacina to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Cagliari have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Bologna 3.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cagliari have generated 1.31 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cagliari player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
