Inter vs Fiorentina Prediction, Tips & Odds
Inter vs Fiorentina
Match Preview
The model favours Inter to win against Fiorentina, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Inter currently sits at the top of the Serie A table, having amassed 16 points from six matches, with a strong record of five wins and one draw. Their attacking prowess is evident, as they have scored 18 goals while conceding only 8, resulting in a goal difference of +10. Fiorentina, on the other hand, is struggling at 19th place with just 4 points from their six matches, registering only one win alongside four losses and a draw. They have scored 7 goals but have conceded 14, leading to a goal difference of -7. Their recent form, with two wins in the last five matches, indicates a slight improvement, but the overall season performance has been disappointing. According to the model, Inter has a win probability of 69.0%, while Fiorentina's chances stand at 13.0%. The prediction highlights a potential for over 2.5 goals at 65.8%. However, a possible caveat for Inter could be complacency, especially against a lower-ranked side. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis has been crafted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilising an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Inter have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Inter win as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Inter clean sheets, in line with their 35% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Inter are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Inter vs Fiorentina| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.37 | 5.40 | 7.70 | 1.40 | 2.66 | 1.64 | 2.12 | |
| 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.35 | 5.75 | 8.03 | 1.41 | 2.95 | — | — | |
| 1.34 | 4.82 | 5.99 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.33 | 5.25 | 9.00 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.41 | 5.56 | 7.90 | 1.40 | 2.66 | 1.64 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 1.35 | 5.10 | 8.75 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.25 | 8.00 | 1.42 | 2.59 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Inter leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Inter and Fiorentina, Inter has won 6 times, Fiorentina has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a somewhat one-sided nature to this rivalry, with Inter securing several convincing victories, including a 4-0 win and a 3-0 win. However, Fiorentina has also managed to achieve notable results, such as their own 3-0 win. The matches have featured a mix of tight contests and more decisive outcomes, suggesting that while Inter has had the upper hand historically, Fiorentina can still pose a challenge, especially with their recent victories.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 19 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 15 | WDWDD |
| 5 |  Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 14 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | LLDWL |
| 19 |  Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonInter have won 13 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Inter 3-4 and beat Inter 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 9D 5L from the last 37 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fiorentina have won 8 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Genoa 2-1 and beat Venezia 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 13L from the last 38 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
1 playerInter
No reported absences
Fiorentina1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Inter have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Fiorentina 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Inter have generated 2.77 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 62% of them. They put 7.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Inter player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
