Napoli vs AS Roma Prediction, Tips & Odds
Napoli vs AS Roma
Match Preview
The model favours AS Roma to win this match against Napoli, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Roma currently sits in second place in Serie A, boasting an impressive record of four wins and one draw from their five matches, which has earned them 13 points. They have scored 14 goals while conceding only 3, highlighting their strong offensive and defensive capabilities this season. Napoli, on the other hand, is positioned eighth with 10 points from six matches, having won three, drawn one, and lost two. Their goal-scoring has been moderate with 10 goals, but they have also shown vulnerability at the back, conceding six. While Napoli has experienced a mixed bag of form recently, they will need to improve their consistency to challenge for a higher league position. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for AS Roma, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to consider is the total goals market, which is likely to reflect the attacking prowess of both teams. However, a potential caveat is Napoli's home advantage, which could influence the game's dynamics. For further details on our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains our in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
AS Roma have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. AS Roma are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Napoli vs AS Roma| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.82 | 3.44 | 2.50 | 1.88 | 1.93 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
| 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.55 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.83 | 3.45 | 2.56 | 1.92 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.12 | 2.33 | 1.91 | 1.95 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 2.88 | 3.10 | 2.60 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.90 | 3.54 | 2.57 | 1.94 | 2.00 | 1.66 | 2.12 | |
Betano | 2.85 | 3.20 | 2.57 | 1.88 | 1.98 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.45 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Napoli leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Napoli and AS Roma, Napoli has won 4 times, there have been 5 draws, and AS Roma has won once. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with many matches ending in draws or narrow victories. Only one match was won by AS Roma, and that was in December 2023, making it the most recent win for them in this fixture. The frequent draws and close scores suggest that while Napoli has had the upper hand overall, AS Roma has been able to hold their own in several encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 19 | WWWDW |
| 3 | AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 15 | WDWDD |
| 5 |  Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 14 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 10 | LWDWL |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | LLDWL |
| 19 |  Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNapoli have won 12 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Bodo/Glimt 4-3 and beat Frosinone 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 7D 11L from the last 35 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
AS Roma have won 7 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Como 0-0 and beat Torino 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 11D 8L from the last 37 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
2 playersNapoli1
AS Roma1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Andrea Colombo has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Napoli have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; AS Roma 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AS Roma have generated 2.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 49% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AS Roma player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
