Torino vs Monza Prediction, Tips & Odds
Torino vs Monza
Match Preview
The model favours Torino to win against Monza, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Torino currently sits in 14th place in the Serie A standings, having secured only one win from their first five matches, alongside one draw and three losses. Their total of five goals scored and eight conceded reflects a struggle to find the back of the net consistently, but they may hold an edge with home advantage in this matchup. Monza, positioned just below Torino in 16th place, shares the same points tally but has a slightly worse goal difference. They have also managed one win, one draw, and three losses in the opening five fixtures. With eight goals scored but twelve conceded, Monza’s defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed, particularly against a Torino side looking to improve their home record. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Torino, suggesting a tight contest ahead. However, a potential concern for Torino is their recent form, which includes only one victory from their last five matches. This might impact their confidence going into the game. For a detailed understanding of how these predictions were reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season to inform its predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Torino have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Torino clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Torino are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Torino vs Monza| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.14 | 3.50 | 3.42 | 1.95 | 1.86 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
| 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 2.19 | 3.45 | 3.49 | 1.99 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 2.09 | 3.06 | 3.05 | 2.02 | 1.84 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.52 | 2.02 | 1.92 | 1.74 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 2.15 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 1.98 | 1.87 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.88 | 1.79 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Torino leads 4-1)In the last eight matches between Torino and Monza, Torino has won 4 times, Monza has won once, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive history, with several closely contested matches, as shown by the three draws and multiple narrow victories. Torino's most significant win was a 4-1 result in a friendly in December 2022, while Monza's lone victory came in a Coppa Italia match in September 2026. Monza has not won in the league against Torino since March 2025, highlighting a challenging trend for them in this fixture.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 19 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 15 | WDWDD |
| 5 |  Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 14 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 10 | Torino | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 | WWDLW |
| 14 | Monza | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | LLDWL |
| 19 |  Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTorino have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Udinese 2-1 and lost to AS Roma 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 14L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Monza have won 3 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Monza 3-1 and drew with Stade Brestois 29 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 5D 8L from the last 19 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
2 playersTorino2
Monza
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Andrea Zanotti has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Andrea Zanotti to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Torino have averaged 4.1 corners per match at home; Monza 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Torino have generated 1.47 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 3.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Torino player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
