Como vs Sassuolo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Como vs Sassuolo
Match Preview
The model favours Como to win this match against Sassuolo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Como currently occupies a solid seventh position in the Serie A standings, having accrued 10 points from their first five matches. Their recent form has been impressive, with four victories in their last five encounters, showcasing their ability to score and defend effectively, as indicated by their goal difference of +3. The team has found the net nine times while conceding six, highlighting a balanced approach in attack and defence. Sassuolo, on the other hand, sits in tenth place with seven points, having recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses. Their goal difference stands at zero, with nine goals scored and nine conceded. While their recent form shows some resilience, with two draws in their last five matches, they have struggled to find consistency, which could be a concern as they face a confident Como side. The model gives Como a win probability of around 55%, while Sassuolo's chances are estimated at 25%, with a 20% probability for a draw. One potential caveat is that if Sassuolo can tighten their defence and exploit any weaknesses in Como's backline, they could pull off an upset. The full method of prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, relying on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Como have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Como win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Como clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Como are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Como vs Sassuolo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.52 | 4.50 | 6.05 | 1.43 | 2.56 | 1.56 | 2.27 | |
| 1.50 | 4.60 | 6.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.52 | 4.71 | 5.93 | 1.44 | 2.84 | — | — | |
| 1.46 | 4.20 | 4.94 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.56 | 4.63 | 6.23 | 1.48 | 2.65 | 1.56 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.52 | 4.75 | 5.60 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 1.60 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 1.43 | 2.56 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Como leads 2-1)In the last three encounters between Como and Sassuolo, Como has won 2 matches while Sassuolo has won 1, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Como to secure decisive victories, winning two matches by a margin of at least two goals, including a 3-0 win in the Coppa Italia. Sassuolo's only victory was a tighter 2-1 result, suggesting that their successes have been less dominant. Overall, Como appears to have the upper hand in this recent head-to-head history, with Sassuolo last winning against Como in April 2026.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 19 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 15 | WDWDD |
| 5 | Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 14 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 | LDLWD |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | LLDWL |
| 19 |  Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonComo have won 9 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Manchester United 4-1 and drew with AS Roma 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 12D 6L from the last 37 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sassuolo have won 2 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sassuolo 4-2 and lost to Monza 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 16L from the last 35 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
5 playersComo
No reported absences
Sassuolo5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Davide Di Marco has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Davide Di Marco to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Como have averaged 6.8 corners per match at home; Sassuolo 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Como have generated 1.84 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 6.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Como player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
