Charlton vs Bristol City Prediction, Tips & Odds
Charlton vs Bristol City
Match Preview
The model favours Bristol City to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Both teams sit closely in the standings, with Bristol City just ahead in 8th place, having accumulated 13 points from 8 matches. They have secured four wins this season, showcasing a stronger offensive presence with 11 goals scored, despite conceding 12. Their recent form, including three wins in the last five matches, indicates a positive trajectory. Charlton, currently in 9th position with 12 points, has struggled slightly in their last few outings, recording three draws and two losses over their past five matches. With only 7 goals scored and 10 conceded, their goal difference of -3 suggests they have faced some challenges defensively. While their overall performance this season has been decent, the lack of recent victories could impact their confidence going into this match. The model gives Bristol City a 41.6% chance of winning, while Charlton's chances stand at 29.6%. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 46.7%, and both teams to score is at 51.5%. A potential caveat for Bristol City could be inconsistency in their defensive line, which has allowed 12 goals this season. For a detailed breakdown of how these predictions were made, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Charlton manage games at home, conceding just 1.32 goals per match. Bristol City score 1.16 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Bristol City have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Bristol City are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Charlton vs Bristol City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.12 | 3.24 | 2.24 | 2.03 | 1.73 | 1.78 | 1.90 | |
| 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 3.22 | 3.35 | 2.36 | 2.16 | 1.75 | — | — | |
| 2.93 | 3.06 | 2.26 | 2.12 | 1.73 | — | — | |
| 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.25 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 3.14 | 3.24 | 2.26 | 2.03 | 1.73 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
Betano | 3.25 | 3.35 | 2.27 | 2.07 | 1.78 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 2.00 | 1.69 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Charlton and Bristol City stands at 3 wins for Charlton, 2 draws, and 3 wins for Bristol City over the last 8 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry with no side dominating the other. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests and some more decisive outcomes, particularly Charlton's 4-1 victory in 2013. Notably, both teams have experienced narrow wins, with four matches ending in a one-goal margin. The last time Bristol City won against Charlton was in February 2016, suggesting a competitive edge for Charlton in more recent encounters.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 22 | WWDDW |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 22 | DWWDD |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 20 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | WWLLD |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 | LDDLD |
| 22 |  Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
| 23 |  Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 | LLDDL |
| 24 |  Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCharlton have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Charlton 1-1 and drew with Charlton 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 12D 13L from the last 37 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Bristol City have won 7 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Charlton 1-1 and beat Crystal Palace 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 16L from the last 37 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCharlton4-2-3-1Confirmed
Bristol City4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersCharlton6
Bristol City3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Tom Reeves has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Charlton have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Bristol City 5.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bristol City have generated 1.41 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bristol City player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
