Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua
Match Preview
The model favours Shanghai Shenhua to win against Chongqing Tongliang Long, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Shanghai Shenhua currently sits in 9th place, having accumulated 28 points from 24 matches, with a record of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses. Their offensive output has been notable, scoring 47 goals this season, which is significantly higher than Chongqing's 25 goals. Despite some inconsistency in recent performance, with three wins in their last five matches, their overall season form indicates a stronger attacking capability. On the other hand, Chongqing Tongliang Long is positioned 7th in the league, holding 30 points from the same number of games. Their recent form has been concerning, as they have not secured a win in their last five matches, managing only one draw and four losses. This struggle has affected their goal difference, which stands at -3, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities. The model output suggests a win probability favouring Shanghai Shenhua. However, it's important to consider that Chongqing could potentially capitalize on any defensive lapses from Shanghai, especially given the unpredictable nature of football. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team relies on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Shanghai Shenhua have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Shanghai Shenhua are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.04 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.25 | |
| 3.24 | 3.60 | 2.03 | 1.65 | 2.17 | 1.54 | 2.28 | |
| 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 3.36 | 3.80 | 2.09 | 1.67 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 2.96 | 3.16 | 1.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.20 | 3.75 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.34 | 3.71 | 2.09 | 1.68 | 2.21 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.54 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 3.30 | 3.45 | 2.07 | 1.67 | 2.12 | 1.55 | 2.30 |
Superbet | 3.30 | 3.55 | 2.00 | 1.66 | 2.10 | 1.59 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.00 | 1.64 | 2.09 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Shanghai Shenhua leads 1-0)The head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shanghai Shenhua shows 0 wins for Chongqing, 1 draw, and 1 win for Shanghai. The recent encounters reveal a competitive nature, with a 2-2 draw in their last meeting and a 2-0 victory for Shanghai in the earlier match. This indicates that while Chongqing has managed to secure a draw, they have not yet claimed a win against Shanghai. The results suggest a tendency toward low-scoring outcomes, with only two goals being the highest scored by either team in their encounters.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 30 | 21 | 51 | WLWLD |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 37 | DDWWW |
| 3 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 25 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 37 | DWDDW |
| 4 |  Dalian Zhixing | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 37 | DWDLW |
| 5 |  Shandong Luneng | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 36 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Yunnan Yukun | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 51 | -2 | 35 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 31 | DLDLL |
| 9 | Shanghai Shenhua | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 28 | LWLWW |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 19 | DDLLW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChongqing Tongliang Long have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Dalian Zhixing 0-1 and beat Qingdao Youth Island 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 11D 8L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Shanghai Shenhua have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shanghai Shenhua 4-5 and beat Dalian Zhixing 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 11L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedChongqing Tongliang Long5-2-3Confirmed
Shanghai Shenhua4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersChongqing Tongliang Long
No reported absences
Shanghai Shenhua
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Chongqing Tongliang Long have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Shanghai Shenhua 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shanghai Shenhua have generated 1.43 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shanghai Shenhua player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.