Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Match Preview
The model favours Shandong Luneng to win against Sichuan Jiuniu, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Shandong Luneng currently sits in 6th place in the league, having accumulated 33 points from 24 matches. Their offensive capabilities are evident with 42 goals scored, while their defensive record shows some fragility with 40 goals conceded. Recent form has been mixed, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating they can still push for a stronger finish this season. On the other hand, Sichuan Jiuniu is positioned 9th with 27 points, reflecting a more challenging season. With only 8 wins out of 24 matches and a goal difference of -10, their struggles in both attack and defense are apparent. Their recent form has not been encouraging either, managing just two wins in their last five games. This inconsistency could hinder their ability to challenge a more stable Shandong side. Overall, the model gives Shandong Luneng a strong win probability, but it is important to note that the dynamics of football can be unpredictable. Sichuan Jiuniu could capitalize on any defensive lapses from Shandong, which may lead to an upset. For a detailed breakdown of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Shandong Luneng have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Shandong Luneng win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Shandong Luneng are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.53 | 4.30 | 4.90 | 1.42 | 2.75 | 1.45 | 2.45 | |
| 1.53 | 4.45 | 4.95 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.46 | |
| 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.55 | 4.54 | 5.06 | 1.41 | 2.84 | — | — | |
| 1.46 | 3.87 | 4.24 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.55 | 4.20 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 1.58 | 4.58 | 5.10 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.50 | |
| 1.61 | 4.35 | 4.50 | 1.32 | 3.05 | 1.40 | 2.65 | |
Betano | 1.55 | 4.35 | 4.80 | 1.40 | 2.72 | 1.47 | 2.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Shandong Luneng leads 4-0)Shandong Luneng has a dominant head-to-head record against Sichuan Jiuniu, winning all four of their last encounters without any draws. The scorelines indicate a pattern of lopsided results, with Shandong winning by at least two goals in three of those matches, including a heavy 4-0 victory. The narrowest win was a 3-2 match, but overall, Sichuan Jiuniu has struggled to compete, having not secured a win in this matchup. This trend highlights a significant advantage for Shandong Luneng in their recent fixtures.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 30 | 21 | 51 | WLWLD |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 37 | DDWWW |
| 3 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 25 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 37 | DWDDW |
| 4 |  Dalian Zhixing | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 37 | DWDLW |
| 5 | Shandong Luneng | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 36 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Yunnan Yukun | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 51 | -2 | 35 | LDWWL |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 25 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 27 | LDWLW |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 19 | DDLLW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShandong Luneng have won 11 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shandong Luneng 3-1 and beat Shandong Luneng 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 8D 8L from the last 33 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sichuan Jiuniu have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shenyang Urban 1-2 and lost to Beijing Guoan 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 17L from the last 33 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShandong Luneng
No reported absences
Sichuan Jiuniu
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shandong Luneng have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Sichuan Jiuniu 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shandong Luneng have generated 2.15 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shandong Luneng player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
