SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan Prediction, Tips & Odds
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan
Match Preview
The model favours Beijing Guoan to win this match against Shanghai SIPG, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned second in the league, Beijing Guoan has demonstrated strong form this season, with 11 wins from 24 matches. Their goal-scoring prowess is evident, having netted 48 goals, while maintaining a solid defensive record with only 32 goals conceded, resulting in a goal difference of +16. On the other hand, Shanghai SIPG sits in 10th place with 26 points after 23 matches, recording 8 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses. Although they have shown some improvement recently, with three wins in their last five matches, their overall season performance has been inconsistent. With 37 goals scored and 32 conceded, their goal difference of +5 indicates that they have struggled to convert matches into clear victories. The model gives Beijing Guoan a significant win probability, reflecting their superior league position and recent form. However, a potential caveat is that Shanghai SIPG, despite their lower standing, could exploit home advantage or catch Beijing Guoan off guard on the day. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
SHANGHAI SIPG have been the stronger side, winning 28% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. SHANGHAI SIPG are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.18 | 3.65 | 2.78 | 1.42 | 2.75 | 1.35 | 2.80 | |
| 2.21 | 3.72 | 2.79 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.36 | 2.84 | |
| 2.15 | 3.90 | 2.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.27 | 3.82 | 2.83 | 1.43 | 2.75 | — | — | |
| 2.03 | 3.34 | 2.57 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.80 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.28 | 3.84 | 2.88 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
| 2.18 | 3.65 | 2.95 | 1.46 | 2.48 | 1.42 | 2.60 | |
Betano | 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.80 | 1.42 | 2.65 | 1.38 | 2.82 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Shanghai SIPG and Beijing Guoan stands at 4 wins for each team with 2 draws in their last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with neither side having a clear upper hand. The scorelines show a mix of narrow victories and a few more decisive wins, such as SIPG's 5-1 triumph and Guoan's 2-0 win. The matches tend to be competitive, with three encounters ending in draws. Notably, both teams have had recent success against one another, with no team going too long without a victory in this fixture.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 30 | 21 | 51 | WLWLD |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 37 | DDWWW |
| 3 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 25 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 37 | DWDDW |
| 4 |  Dalian Zhixing | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 37 | DWDLW |
| 5 |  Shandong Luneng | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 36 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Yunnan Yukun | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 51 | -2 | 35 | LDWWL |
| 7 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 32 | WWDWW |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 19 | DDLLW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSHANGHAI SIPG have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Dalian Zhixing 1-1 and drew with Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 11D 12L from the last 32 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Beijing Guoan have won 9 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shanghai Shenhua 0-3 and beat Tianjin Teda 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 8D 8L from the last 33 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSHANGHAI SIPG
No reported absences
Beijing Guoan
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
SHANGHAI SIPG have averaged 5.6 corners per match at home; Beijing Guoan 6.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
SHANGHAI SIPG have generated 1.12 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 28% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. SHANGHAI SIPG player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.