Columbus Crew vs New York City FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Columbus Crew vs New York City FC
Match Preview
The model favours New York City FC to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Columbus Crew. New York City FC currently sits in 8th place, just three points ahead of their opponents. With five wins this season, their offensive output has been stronger, scoring 25 goals compared to Columbus Crew's 21. Additionally, New York has a positive goal difference of 4, indicating a more solid defensive performance overall. Columbus Crew, positioned 10th, has struggled this season with only four wins from 15 matches. Their recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses in the last five matches, highlighting inconsistency. While their goal difference is slightly negative at -2, their defense has allowed 23 goals, which could be a critical factor against a more potent New York City attack. According to the model's output, New York City FC has a win probability of approximately 55%, while Columbus Crew stands at 25%, with a 20% chance of a draw. One caveat to consider is that Columbus Crew could find an edge if they exploit any defensive lapses from New York City FC. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Columbus Crew have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Columbus Crew clean sheets, in line with their 20% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Columbus Crew are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Columbus Crew vs New York City FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.75 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.07 | 3.60 | 3.22 | 1.94 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 1.94 | |
| 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.90 | 3.82 | 4.03 | 1.86 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 1.96 | 3.40 | 3.52 | 1.80 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.94 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.75 | 2.02 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
Betano | 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.95 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.78 | 1.95 |
Superbet | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.60 | 1.76 | 2.07 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Columbus Crew and New York City FC stands at 3 wins for Columbus, 4 draws, and 3 wins for New York City. This indicates a balanced rivalry with no side dominating. The scorelines reflect a mix of close contests, highlighted by four matches ending in draws and several games featuring narrow victories. Notably, the highest-scoring match was a 4-2 win for Columbus, while New York City secured a significant 4-1 win in 2021. Both teams have shown the ability to win, but the frequency of draws suggests competitive encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 5 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 26 | DWWLD |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 20 | DWLWD |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 16 | DLLDD |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonColumbus Crew have won 9 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Atlas 3-1 and beat FC Cincinnati 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 11L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
New York City FC have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Columbus Crew 1-2 and lost to Nashville SC 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 10L from the last 28 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
15 playersColumbus Crew4
New York City FC11
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Columbus Crew have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; New York City FC 2.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Columbus Crew have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Columbus Crew player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
