Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Prediction, Tips & Odds
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls
Match Preview
The model favours the New York Red Bulls to win against the Philadelphia Union, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. This prediction is grounded in the contrasting season performances of both teams. The Red Bulls currently sit in 5th place with 22 points from 15 matches, showing a solid record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses. Their goal-scoring ability is evident with 25 goals, although they have conceded 32, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities. In contrast, the Philadelphia Union are struggling in 15th place with just 7 points from their 15 matches, having won only once this season. Their form has been particularly poor, with no wins in their last five matches, recording just 2 draws and 3 losses. With only 18 goals scored and 30 conceded, they have a significant goal difference of -12, highlighting their difficulties both in attack and defence. The model gives the New York Red Bulls a strong win probability based on their current standing and recent form, while the Union's struggles could lead to another disappointing performance. However, the caveat here is that if the Union can find a way to solidify their defence and convert chances, they could upset the predicted outcome. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Philadelphia Union have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Philadelphia Union win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Philadelphia Union are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
| 1.67 | 4.15 | 4.30 | 1.41 | 2.54 | 1.46 | 2.49 | |
| 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 1.75 | 4.33 | 4.27 | 1.49 | 2.72 | — | — | |
| 1.68 | 4.00 | 4.16 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.43 | 2.75 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 4.30 | 3.90 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.55 |
Superbet | 1.76 | 4.15 | 4.15 | 1.48 | 2.67 | 1.49 | 2.52 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Philadelphia Union leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Philadelphia Union and New York Red Bulls, Philadelphia Union has won 6 times, there have been 3 draws, and New York Red Bulls has won once. The scorelines indicate a strong advantage for Philadelphia, with several matches ending in their favor by at least two goals, including a 4-1 victory. The lone win for New York came in a narrow 1-0 match, highlighting their struggles against Philadelphia. Additionally, New York has not won against Philadelphia since 2025, reinforcing the lopsided nature of this rivalry in recent years.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 25 | WLLWD |
| 13 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 16 | WWWLD |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 16 | DLLDD |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPhiladelphia Union have won 6 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Philadelphia Union 3-2 and beat Philadelphia Union 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 5D 14L from the last 27 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
New York Red Bulls have won 3 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Philadelphia Union 3-1 and beat Sporting Kansas City 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 13L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersPhiladelphia Union5
New York Red Bulls6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Philadelphia Union have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; New York Red Bulls 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Philadelphia Union have generated 1.92 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 30% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Philadelphia Union player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
