New England Revolution vs Toronto FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC
Match Preview
The model favours New England Revolution to win against Toronto FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned fourth in the league with 25 points from 14 matches, New England has shown a solid performance this season, boasting eight wins alongside a positive goal difference of four. Their recent form indicates a resurgence, with three victories in their last five matches, highlighting their ability to score while maintaining a relatively stable defence. In contrast, Toronto FC finds themselves struggling in 13th place, having accumulated just 14 points from 14 games. With only three wins this season and a negative goal difference of seven, their performance has been inconsistent. The team has not won in their last five matches, with four losses and only one draw, indicating significant challenges in both attack and defence. The model provides New England Revolution with a win probability of approximately 60%, reflecting their current form and league standing. However, a potential caveat for this prediction is the possibility of Toronto FC's players stepping up unexpectedly, which could disrupt New England's momentum. For a detailed understanding of our prediction methodology, including expected goals and actual results analysis, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
New England Revolution have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature New England Revolution clean sheets, in line with their 21% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. New England Revolution are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.50 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 1.74 | 3.64 | 4.50 | 1.74 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.50 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.20 | 1.70 | 1.99 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New England Revolution leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between New England Revolution and Toronto FC, the record stands at 4 wins for New England, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Toronto. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry with several close matches, as seen in the three draws and the narrow margins of victory. Notably, both teams have had moments of dominance, with New England securing two 2-0 wins, while Toronto managed a 1-0 victory as well. The most recent match ended in a 1-1 draw, highlighting the evenly matched nature of these encounters in recent years.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 17 | DLDDL |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 16 | DLLDD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew England Revolution have won 11 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Houston Dynamo 0-2 and beat Atlanta United FC 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 10L from the last 28 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Toronto FC have won 1 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Toronto FC 1-1 and lost to DC United 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 9D 10L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNew England Revolution4-2-3-1Confirmed
Toronto FC4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
11 playersNew England Revolution5
Toronto FC6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
New England Revolution have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Toronto FC 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New England Revolution have generated 1.20 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New England Revolution player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
