Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Tips & Odds
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Match Preview
The model slightly favours Crystal Palace to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 1-1. Crystal Palace currently sits in 15th place in the Premier League after five matches, with a mixed start to the season. Their form has improved recently, having secured three wins, one draw, and only one loss in their last five matches. Despite a negative goal difference of -5, their ability to score six goals indicates some attacking potential that could be pivotal in this fixture. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, is positioned 13th and has managed one win, two draws, and two losses in their five games. Their recent form shows they have struggled, with only one victory in their last five matches. Although their goal difference is better than Palace's at -1, their overall scoring output of four goals suggests that they may find it challenging to break through Palace's defence. The model gives Crystal Palace a win probability of 35.7%, while Nottingham Forest has a nearly identical chance at 35.6%. With a projected score of 1-1, there is also a 47.1% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, and a 52.5% chance for both teams to score. However, a caveat to consider is the inconsistency in Palace's defensive performance, which could allow Forest to capitalize on scoring opportunities. For further details on how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Crystal Palace have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Crystal Palace are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.84 | 3.34 | 2.55 | 1.90 | 1.92 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
| 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.55 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.65 | 2.25 | |
| 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.58 | 1.89 | 2.01 | — | — | |
| 2.61 | 3.16 | 2.50 | 1.89 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.55 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.92 | 3.43 | 2.62 | 1.96 | 1.98 | 1.66 | 2.12 | |
Betano | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.57 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 1.81 | 1.86 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Nottingham Forest leads 2-0)In the last 10 matches between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace has not secured a victory, with the record showing 0 wins for them, 8 draws, and 2 wins for Nottingham Forest. The scorelines indicate a pattern of tightly contested matches, with most encounters ending in draws, including five instances of 1-1 and a notable 0-0 draw. Nottingham Forest's wins have been narrow, with a single goal margin, further emphasizing the competitive nature of these fixtures. Crystal Palace has not won against Nottingham Forest since 2012, highlighting a significant challenge in this matchup.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 18 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 16 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 10 | LDWDD |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 7 | LWDLW |
| 18 |  Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 | LLLWD |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCrystal Palace have won 11 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Crystal Palace 3-1 and lost to Crystal Palace 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 10D 18L from the last 45 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Nottingham Forest have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Nottingham Forest 3-1 and beat Aston Villa 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 11D 12L from the last 38 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCrystal Palace3-4-2-1Confirmed
Nottingham Forest3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersCrystal Palace6
Nottingham Forest4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Peter Bankes has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Crystal Palace have averaged 3.1 corners per match at home; Nottingham Forest 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Crystal Palace have generated 1.59 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Crystal Palace player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
