Derby vs Wrexham Prediction, Tips & Odds
Derby vs Wrexham
Match Preview
The model favours Wrexham to win, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Currently sitting in 14th place, Wrexham has shown a decent level of consistency with two wins, four draws, and two losses from their eight matches. They have managed to score nine goals while conceding twelve, resulting in a goal difference of -3. Their recent form, including two wins and two draws in the last five matches, suggests they are gaining momentum. In contrast, Derby finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 22nd position, with only one win, two draws, and five losses to show from their eight games. Their goal-scoring struggles are evident, as they have netted just seven goals while conceding fourteen, leading to a goal difference of -7. With only five points accumulated so far, Derby's recent form of one win, one draw, and three losses indicates significant challenges ahead. The model gives Wrexham a 37.4% win probability, while Derby's chances stand at 33.5%. With the potential for over 2.5 goals sitting at 46.9% and both teams scoring at 51.8%, the match could be competitive. However, if Derby can leverage home advantage effectively, they may disrupt Wrexham's plans. The full prediction method, based on expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Derby manage games at home, conceding just 1.46 goals per match. Wrexham score 1.38 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Wrexham have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Wrexham are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Derby vs Wrexham| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.90 | 3.26 | 2.36 | 1.94 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 3.08 | 3.36 | 2.43 | 2.09 | 1.80 | — | — | |
| 2.76 | 3.07 | 2.36 | 2.06 | 1.78 | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.38 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.91 | 3.26 | 2.38 | 1.94 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.40 | 2.02 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.38 | 1.94 | 1.74 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Wrexham leads 1-0)In the last two matches between Derby and Wrexham, Wrexham has won once, and there has been one draw, resulting in a head-to-head record of 0 wins for Derby, 1 draw, and 1 win for Wrexham. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with both matches being closely contested. The first match saw Wrexham edge out Derby with a narrow 2-1 victory, while the second match ended in a 1-1 draw. Derby has not won against Wrexham in these encounters, highlighting a slight advantage for Wrexham in recent history.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 22 | WWDDW |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 22 | DWWDD |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 20 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | WWLLD |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 | WLDWL |
| 22 |  Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 | LLDDL |
| 24 |  Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDerby have won 6 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Stoke City 0-1 and drew with Wrexham 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 5D 19L from the last 37 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Wrexham have won 7 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Derby 1-1 and lost to West Ham 6-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 9D 13L from the last 37 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedDerby4-2-3-1Confirmed
Wrexham3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
14 playersDerby8
Wrexham6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Matt Donohue has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Derby have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Wrexham 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Wrexham have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Wrexham player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
