Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M.
Match Preview
The model favours Estudiantes L.P. to win against Gimnasia M. with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Estudiantes currently sits at the top of the Liga Profesional Argentina standings, having accumulated 31 points from 16 matches. Their strong season has been marked by a solid defence, conceding only 7 goals, which highlights their ability to control games. Although their recent form shows some inconsistency with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, their overall performance reflects a team capable of maintaining their position at the summit. On the other hand, Gimnasia M. is positioned 11th with 19 points from 16 matches. Their season has been challenging, as they have managed only five wins and have a negative goal difference of -8, indicating struggles both in attack and defence. Their recent form, which includes two wins and two draws in their last five matches, suggests a slight improvement but may not be enough to challenge a strong side like Estudiantes. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Estudiantes, along with the projected score of 2-0. One caveat to consider is that Estudiantes' recent form could lead to unexpected vulnerabilities, especially if they underestimate their opponents. For further details on our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Estudiantes L.P. have kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches. Gimnasia M. average 1.0 goals per game.
Estudiantes L.P. manage games at home, conceding just 0.94 goals per match. Gimnasia M. score 1.00 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.3% probability.
Estudiantes L.P. have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Estudiantes L.P. win as the most likely scoreline at 18.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Estudiantes L.P. clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Estudiantes L.P. are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M.| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.68 | 3.52 | 5.10 | 2.14 | 1.66 | 2.02 | 1.69 | |
| 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.50 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 2.05 | 1.75 | |
| 1.67 | 3.74 | 5.85 | 2.24 | 1.70 | — | — | |
| 1.64 | 3.28 | 4.72 | 2.25 | 1.64 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.00 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.00 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 1.72 | 3.60 | 5.21 | 2.17 | 1.69 | 2.02 | 1.71 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 3.70 | 5.70 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 2.07 | 1.70 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.50 | 2.08 | 1.64 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Estudiantes L.P. leads 1-0)Estudiantes L.P. has won the only recent match against Gimnasia M., with a record of 1 win and no draws or losses. The scoreline of 2-1 indicates a competitive encounter, suggesting that while Estudiantes L.P. emerged victorious, the match was relatively tight. There have been no draws in their last meeting, and Gimnasia M. has not won against Estudiantes L.P. in this sample. This recent fixture shows that Estudiantes L.P. holds a slight upper hand in their head-to-head record.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LDWLW |
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WDWLW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | WDWLD |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WLDWD |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 | LWLDL |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | WLDWD |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | WLLLL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstudiantes L.P. have won 15 of their last 30 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to San Lorenzo 1-2 and drew with Flamengo 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 13D 17L from the last 52 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Gimnasia M. have won 3 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Gimnasia M. 1-0 and lost to Estudiantes L.P. 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 12L from the last 30 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstudiantes L.P.
No reported absences
Gimnasia M.
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Yael Falcon Perez has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Estudiantes L.P. have averaged 4.1 corners per match at home; Gimnasia M. 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estudiantes L.P. have generated 1.55 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estudiantes L.P. player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
