FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
Match Preview
The model favors FC Augsburg to win against Union Berlin, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Augsburg currently sits in 6th place in the Bundesliga, having accumulated 8 points from their first five matches. Their offensive capabilities are evident, as they have scored 13 goals, which highlights their attacking potential. Although they have drawn three of their last five matches, their overall form remains solid with just one loss, indicating a competitive team. On the other hand, Union Berlin finds themselves in a precarious position at 16th in the standings, with only 4 points from 5 matches. Their season has been challenging, marked by a negative goal difference of -12 and only one win. The team has struggled defensively, conceding 17 goals, which is a significant concern as they face an Augsburg side that is capable of capitalizing on defensive lapses. According to the model, FC Augsburg has a win probability of approximately 63%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a key caveat is that Augsburg's recent form includes three draws, which could indicate a tendency to drop points when not converting chances. For a detailed explanation of the methodology behind this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
FC Augsburg have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FC Augsburg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.91 | 4.05 | 3.68 | 1.49 | 2.40 | 1.48 | 2.46 | |
| 1.85 | 3.95 | 3.84 | 1.56 | 2.46 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.96 | 4.16 | 3.78 | 1.49 | 2.40 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.52 | 2.31 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Augsburg leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin, FC Augsburg has won 4, there have been 3 draws, and Union Berlin has also won 3. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced rivalry, with several matches ending in draws or narrow victories. Notably, the teams have exchanged wins, with Augsburg's victories often coming with a margin of two goals, while Union Berlin has won by just one goal in their matches. The most recent draw was in January 2026, highlighting that neither team has dominated the fixture in recent encounters.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 10 | WWDWL |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 9 | WLWLW |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 8 | DLDWW |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 | WLLLD |
| 17 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 3 | LLWLL |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Augsburg have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Bayern München 2-2 and drew with Hertha BSC 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 9L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Union Berlin have won 4 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include beat HNK Rijeka 0-1 and lost to Bayern München 7-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 9D 15L from the last 32 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Augsburg
No reported absences
Union Berlin
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FC Augsburg have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Union Berlin 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Augsburg have generated 1.99 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Augsburg player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
