Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom
Match Preview
The model favours Lillestrom to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in fourth place, Lillestrom has shown solid form this season with six wins from eleven matches, accumulating 19 points. Their goal difference of +6 highlights their ability to both score and defend effectively, as they have netted 17 goals while conceding only 11. This balance has been key to their success, and they will look to continue this trend against Fredrikstad. In contrast, Fredrikstad is positioned tenth in the standings, with a record of four wins, two draws, and five losses, resulting in 14 points. Their recent form has been concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, which includes four losses. With 15 goals scored and 20 conceded, their negative goal difference of -5 indicates vulnerabilities in their defensive setup, making it challenging to secure points consistently. The model gives Lillestrom a win probability of 38.4%, while Fredrikstad has a 33.7% chance of winning. The projected score is 2-1, and there is a 53.4% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored. However, a potential caveat for Lillestrom could be complacency, as they may underestimate a struggling opponent. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Lillestrom have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Lillestrom are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.30 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 2.92 | 3.32 | 2.33 | 1.74 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 3.05 | 3.42 | 2.42 | 1.78 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 2.71 | 3.14 | 2.36 | 1.74 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.99 | 3.40 | 2.39 | 1.76 | 2.08 | 1.57 | 2.26 | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.38 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.42 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Superbet | 2.90 | 3.35 | 2.35 | 1.76 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.17 |
BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.70 | 1.99 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Fredrikstad leads 3-1)The head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Lillestrom shows Fredrikstad winning 3 times, Lillestrom winning 1 time, and 3 matches ending in draws over their last 7 encounters. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced contest, with several matches finishing in draws and a mix of narrow victories. Notably, Fredrikstad has not only secured more wins but has also achieved some convincing results, including a 3-0 victory. Lillestrom's last win against Fredrikstad was in January 2024, highlighting a recent struggle for them in this matchup.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 33 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 11 | 23 | 32 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 31 | WWDDL |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 5 |  Molde | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 20 | LDWLW |
| 6 |  Brann | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 19 | WWLLL |
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 14 | LLWDW |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 12 | LDDDW |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 | LDLLL |
| 16 |  Start | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 34 | -18 | 10 | WLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFredrikstad have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Fredrikstad 0-2 and drew with Fredrikstad 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 11L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lillestrom have won 5 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Fredrikstad 0-2 and lost to FC Midtjylland 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 11L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersFredrikstad4
Lillestrom5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Kringstad has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Fredrikstad have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Lillestrom 5.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lillestrom have generated 1.39 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lillestrom player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
