Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom Prediction, Tips & Odds

Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom

EliteserienRegular Season - 13
Fredrikstad
#12 · Eliteserien
LLLDD
0 - 2
Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad
Referee: S. Kringstad
Lillestrom
#4 · Eliteserien
WWWLL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.62
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.59 (implied 63.0%) for Both Teams to Score. Our experts calculate a 65.5% probability (an expert ratio of 1.53). We chose this bet because our experts rate it more likely than the bookmaker price implies (65.5% vs 63.0%), driven by both attacks scoring freely while both defences look leaky. That edge makes it our most confident selection for this match.

Match Preview

The model favours Lillestrom to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in fourth place, Lillestrom has shown solid form this season with six wins from eleven matches, accumulating 19 points. Their goal difference of +6 highlights their ability to both score and defend effectively, as they have netted 17 goals while conceding only 11. This balance has been key to their success, and they will look to continue this trend against Fredrikstad. In contrast, Fredrikstad is positioned tenth in the standings, with a record of four wins, two draws, and five losses, resulting in 14 points. Their recent form has been concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, which includes four losses. With 15 goals scored and 20 conceded, their negative goal difference of -5 indicates vulnerabilities in their defensive setup, making it challenging to secure points consistently. The model gives Lillestrom a win probability of 38.4%, while Fredrikstad has a 33.7% chance of winning. The projected score is 2-1, and there is a 53.4% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored. However, a potential caveat for Lillestrom could be complacency, as they may underestimate a struggling opponent. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.

Betting Predictions

How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.

Match Result
Fredrikstad Win32%2.88
Draw23%3.33
Lillestrom Win45%2.34
BTTS
Both Teams to Score: Yes
1.5960.2%

Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.

Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
1.7457.2%

Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.

Correct Score
Fredrikstad 1-1 Lillestrom
6.2516.1%

The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.

Asian Handicap
Lillestrom -0.0
1.7039%

Lillestrom have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.

CORRECT SCOREMost likely outcomes
1-1
6.25
16.1%
1-2
8.53
11.8%
0-1
8.84
11.4%
2-1
9.58
10.5%
1-0
9.90
10.2%
0-0
11.08
9.2%

Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.

ASIAN HANDICAPLines & prices
Fredrikstad
-0.0
2.11
Lillestrom
+0.0
1.70
Fredrikstad
-0.3
2.44
Lillestrom
+0.3
2.06
Fredrikstad
-0.5
2.71
Lillestrom
+0.5
2.27
Fredrikstad
-1.5
6.00
Lillestrom
+1.5
4.50

Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Lillestrom are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.

Best Betting Odds

Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom
Bookmaker1X2O/U 2.5BTTS
1X2OverUnderYesNo
10Bet
2.903.402.301.702.101.552.25
Marathonbet
2.923.322.331.742.051.572.22
Betfair
2.883.402.301.732.101.572.38
Pinnacle
3.053.422.421.782.11
SBO
2.713.142.361.742.13
William Hill
2.903.252.301.622.20
Bet365
3.003.302.301.752.051.622.20
1xBet
2.993.402.391.762.081.572.26
Unibet
2.803.302.381.682.021.552.25
888Sport
2.903.252.301.752.001.622.20
Betano
2.753.402.421.752.051.602.20
Superbet
2.903.352.351.762.001.622.17
BetVictor
2.803.402.251.701.991.572.25

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
91%
Over 1.5 Goals
76.5%
Over 2.5 Goals
57.2%
Over 3.5 Goals
33.3%

Double Chance

Bet covers two outcomes
1XFredrikstad or Draw
55%1.55
12Fredrikstad or Lillestrom
77%1.30
X2Draw or Lillestrom
68%1.38

Head to Head

Last 7 Meetings (Fredrikstad leads 3-1)
3 Fredrikstad3 Draw1 Lillestrom
31 Jan
Lillestrom
2-2
Fredrikstad
Friendlies Clubs
May 25
Lillestrom
1-1
Fredrikstad
NM Cupen
Mar 25
Fredrikstad
1-0
Lillestrom
Friendlies Clubs
Oct 24
Fredrikstad
2-1
Lillestrom
Eliteserien
May 24
Lillestrom
0-3
Fredrikstad
Eliteserien
Jan 24
Lillestrom
2-1
Fredrikstad
Friendlies Clubs
Mar 22
Fredrikstad
1-1
Lillestrom
Friendlies Clubs

The head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Lillestrom shows Fredrikstad winning 3 times, Lillestrom winning 1 time, and 3 matches ending in draws over their last 7 encounters. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced contest, with several matches finishing in draws and a mix of narrow victories. Notably, Fredrikstad has not only secured more wins but has also achieved some convincing results, including a 3-0 victory. Lillestrom's last win against Fredrikstad was in January 2024, highlighting a recent struggle for them in this matchup.

Eliteserien Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Viking
13110233132033
WWLWW
2
Bodo/Glimt
14102234112332
WWWDW
3
Tromso
1594226151131
WWDDL
4
Lillestrom
148152214825
LWWLL
5
Molde
136252117420
LDWLW
6
Brann
146172822619
WWLLL
12
Fredrikstad
134271523-814
LLWDW
14
Aalesund
132651828-1012
LDDDW
15
Kristiansund BK
143381223-1112
LDLLL
16
Start
152491634-1810
WLLLW

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
FredrikstadHome
3W1D2L
6 playedGF 9 · GA 81.67 pts/game
LillestromAway
4W1D2L
7 playedGF 8 · GA 51.86 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
FredrikstadLillestrom
1.37Goals p.g.1.89
1.67Goals conceded p.g.1.43
11%Clean sheets29%
37%Win rate46%
3.04Avg goals in match3.32
1.22xG per game1.39
-0.07xGA per game-0.12
48%Possession %52%
3.3Shots on target / game4.3
4.3Corners per game5.4
Fredrikstad
Recent Form

Fredrikstad have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Fredrikstad 0-2 and drew with Fredrikstad 0-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 11L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: FredrikstadAll competitions
17 Jul
Bodo/Glimt
1-0
Fredrikstad
Eliteserien
11 Jul
Fredrikstad
0-2
Lillestrom
Eliteserien
04 Jul
Valerenga
3-1
Fredrikstad
Friendlies Clubs
28 Jun
Fredrikstad
0-0
IF Elfsborg
Friendlies Clubs
20 Jun
Fredrikstad
1-1
Ham-Kam
Friendlies Clubs
29 May
Fredrikstad
2-1
Start
Eliteserien
10
Win
37%
6
Draw
22%
11
Lost
41%
Lillestrom
Recent Form

Lillestrom have won 5 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Fredrikstad 0-2 and lost to FC Midtjylland 1-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 11L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: LillestromAll competitions
18 Jul
Lillestrom
2-1
KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien
11 Jul
Fredrikstad
0-2
Lillestrom
Eliteserien
03 Jul
Lillestrom
3-1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Friendlies Clubs
26 Jun
Lillestrom
2-3
Degerfors IF
Friendlies Clubs
20 Jun
FC Midtjylland
1-0
Lillestrom
Friendlies Clubs
25 May
Ham-Kam
2-0
Lillestrom
Eliteserien
13
Win
46%
4
Draw
14%
11
Lost
39%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

9 players

Fredrikstad4

L. Owusu
QuestionableInjury
S. Kvile
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
S. Owusu
QuestionableMuscle Injury
S. Sorlokk
Missing FixtureFoot Injury

Lillestrom5

E. B. Garnas
Missing FixtureRed Card
E. Kitolano
Missing FixtureBroken Leg
H. Woxen
QuestionableInjury
K. Arierhi
QuestionableInjury
L. Ranger
Missing FixtureInjury

Betting Strategy

High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.

High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.74 (57.2%)
Both Teams Score1.59 (60.2%)
Value Bets
Fredrikstad Win2.88 (31.7%)
Lillestrom Win2.34 (45.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.06 (42.8%)
BTTS No2.23 (39.8%)
Speculative
Draw3.33 (23.2%)

Yellow Card Prediction

S. Kringstad has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.

Corner Prediction

Fredrikstad have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Lillestrom 5.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.

Player Stats Bet

Lillestrom have generated 1.39 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lillestrom player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.

What's Your Prediction?

Pick the result you expect

OUR PREDICTION
Both Teams to Score Yes

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.