Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Match Preview
The model favours Fredrikstad to win against Sarpsborg 08 FF with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 7th place, Fredrikstad has been in excellent form, winning their last five matches, which has significantly bolstered their points tally to 26. Their goal difference stands at -6, indicating that while they have struggled defensively, their recent offensive output suggests they are finding their rhythm. On the other hand, Sarpsborg 08 FF is positioned 9th in the standings with 23 points and has had a less consistent run lately. With only one win in their last five matches, their form has dipped, characterized by two draws and two losses. Their goal difference of -3 reflects a similar struggle, albeit with a slightly more balanced attacking and defensive record compared to Fredrikstad. The model projects a win probability of 55% for Fredrikstad, with the likelihood of a draw at 25% and a Sarpsborg victory at 20%. One potential caveat for Fredrikstad is the risk of complacency after a strong winning streak, which could open the door for Sarpsborg to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Fredrikstad have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Fredrikstad are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.70 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 2.35 | |
| 2.42 | 3.48 | 2.69 | 1.70 | 2.11 | 1.54 | 2.28 | |
| 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.63 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 2.46 | 3.62 | 2.82 | 1.72 | 2.18 | — | — | |
| 2.29 | 3.17 | 2.52 | 1.65 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.70 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.48 | 3.56 | 2.76 | 1.72 | 2.14 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 2.55 | 3.55 | 2.55 | 1.58 | 2.20 | 1.49 | 2.38 | |
| 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.63 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 3.40 | 2.72 | 1.78 | 2.02 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.63 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Fredrikstad leads 3-2)In their last seven encounters, Fredrikstad has won 3 times, Sarpsborg 08 FF has won 2 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in close results, such as the 2-1 and 1-1 draws. While Fredrikstad has managed to secure a couple of narrow victories, Sarpsborg 08 FF's wins have also been by a margin of two goals, suggesting that when either team wins, it can be by a decisive score. The most recent match saw Fredrikstad winning 2-1 in the NM Cupen, showcasing their ability to edge out their rivals.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 26 | LWWWW |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 | DDLLD |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFredrikstad have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Bodo/Glimt 1-2 and beat Kristiansund BK 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 13L from the last 33 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-0 and beat Sparta Sarpsborg 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 9L from the last 29 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFredrikstad
No reported absences
Sarpsborg 08 FF
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
U. Aslam has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by U. Aslam to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Fredrikstad have averaged 3.6 corners per match at home; Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fredrikstad have generated 1.24 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fredrikstad player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
