KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund Prediction, Tips & Odds
KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund
Match Preview
The model favours KFUM Oslo to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 13th in the league, KFUM Oslo has shown signs of improvement with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Their goal-scoring has been relatively modest, with 20 goals this season, but they have managed to tighten their defence, conceding 31 goals. Aalesund, on the other hand, sits in 15th place and has struggled throughout the season, recording only two wins from 18 matches. Their form is concerning, with just one victory in their last five games and a goal difference of -15, which indicates significant defensive vulnerabilities. They have scored 28 goals but have also conceded 43, highlighting their inconsistency at both ends of the pitch. The model's output suggests a win probability of approximately 60% for KFUM Oslo, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to consider is the likelihood of KFUM Oslo scoring at least two goals. However, a potential caveat is that if Aalesund can improve their defensive organisation, they may pose a more significant threat than their season stats suggest. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals alongside actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
KFUM Oslo have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. KFUM Oslo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.38 | 3.70 | 2.65 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
| 2.41 | 3.72 | 2.57 | 1.47 | 2.38 | 1.44 | 2.55 | |
| 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 2.49 | 3.99 | 2.63 | 1.54 | 2.58 | — | — | |
| 2.24 | 3.28 | 2.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.40 | 3.70 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.46 | 3.84 | 2.63 | 1.47 | 2.38 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 2.28 | 3.55 | 2.85 | 1.58 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.63 | 1.53 | 2.30 | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.37 | 3.80 | 2.60 | 1.55 | 2.42 | 1.47 | 2.50 |
BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Aalesund leads 4-0)In the last five matches between KFUM Oslo and Aalesund, Aalesund has won four times, with one match ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Aalesund to dominate, particularly evident in their four victories, which include two matches with a margin of at least two goals. The lone draw occurred in a high-scoring 2-2 tie, suggesting that while KFUM Oslo can compete, they have not secured a win against Aalesund in this stretch. The last time KFUM Oslo triumphed in this fixture was prior to 2019, highlighting a significant period without a victory against this opponent.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 20 | 34 | 50 | WWDWL |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 50 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 38 | WLLDL |
| 4 |  Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 36 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 33 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 | LWWLD |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 25 | WWLLD |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 21 | WLWLD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 19 | LLWDL |
| 16 |  Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 16 | LWLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKFUM Oslo have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat KFUM Oslo 2-1 and drew with KFUM Oslo 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 17L from the last 37 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Aalesund have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Aalesund 1-2 and beat Førde 3-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 9D 14L from the last 35 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersKFUM Oslo6
Aalesund5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
C. Moen has averaged 6.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
KFUM Oslo have averaged 4.1 corners per match at home; Aalesund 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
KFUM Oslo have generated 1.12 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. KFUM Oslo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
