Ham-Kam vs Molde Prediction, Tips & Odds
Ham-Kam vs Molde
Match Preview
The model favours Molde to win against Ham-Kam, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. This prediction is grounded in the teams' current standings, with Molde sitting in 4th place, significantly higher than Ham-Kam, who are positioned 10th. Molde's season has seen them gather 30 points from 18 matches, supported by a strong goal tally of 36 goals scored, indicating their attacking prowess. Ham-Kam, on the other hand, has struggled this season, accumulating only 23 points. With a goal difference of -6, they have conceded more goals than they have scored, which highlights their defensive vulnerabilities. Their recent form, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, suggests they are capable of competing, but consistency has been an issue. The model gives Molde a strong win probability, reflecting their superior league position and recent form. However, a potential caveat is that Ham-Kam could exploit any complacency from Molde, particularly if they can capitalize on home advantage. For a deeper understanding of how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals alongside actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Molde have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Molde win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Molde are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Ham-Kam vs Molde| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.70 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
| 4.45 | 4.33 | 1.62 | 1.39 | 2.61 | 1.46 | 2.49 | |
| 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.60 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 4.65 | 4.62 | 1.65 | 1.45 | 2.85 | — | — | |
| 3.56 | 3.54 | 1.71 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.33 | 4.20 | 1.62 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 4.50 | 4.10 | 1.65 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 4.56 | 4.43 | 1.66 | 1.39 | 2.61 | 1.46 | 2.53 | |
| 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.71 | 1.41 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 4.45 | 4.25 | 1.65 | 1.45 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.57 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Molde leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Ham-Kam and Molde, Molde has won 7 times, Ham-Kam has won once, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a significant advantage for Molde, with several heavy victories, including a 5-0 win and a 4-1 win. Ham-Kam's sole victory came in a narrow 2-1 match, highlighting the overall dominance of Molde in this matchup. The frequency of draws is low, and Ham-Kam has not won against Molde in their last six encounters, further underscoring Molde's strong historical performance in these fixtures.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 20 | 34 | 50 | WWDWL |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 50 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 38 | WLLDL |
| 4 | Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 36 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 33 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 | LWWLD |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 23 | LLLDL |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 21 | WLWLD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 19 | LLWDL |
| 16 |  Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 16 | LWLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHam-Kam have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Ham-Kam 1-5 and drew with Ham-Kam 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 16L from the last 36 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Molde have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Trygg/Lade 0-5 and beat Ham-Kam 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 12L from the last 36 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHam-Kam5-3-2Confirmed
Molde4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
6 playersHam-Kam
No reported absences
Molde6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Kellerhals has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Kellerhals to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Ham-Kam have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Molde 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Molde have generated 1.64 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Molde player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
