Rosenborg vs Tromso Prediction, Tips & Odds
Rosenborg vs Tromso
Match Preview
The model favours Tromsø to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place in the Eliteserien, Tromsø has demonstrated solid form this season with ten wins from 17 matches. Their offensive capabilities are noteworthy, having scored 34 goals, which highlights their ability to convert chances effectively. Additionally, their goal difference of +14 indicates a strong defensive performance, allowing only 20 goals throughout the season. In contrast, Rosenborg finds themselves in seventh place, with a record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses. While they have shown resilience recently with four wins in their last five matches, their overall season performance has been inconsistent. With a goal difference of +3 from 25 goals scored and 22 conceded, they face challenges in both attack and defense compared to their opponents. The model gives Tromsø a higher win probability for this match, reflecting their superior league standing and recent form. However, one potential caveat is Rosenborg's recent improvement, which could lead to an unpredictable outcome. For a detailed understanding of the prediction, please see the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employed an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Rosenborg have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Rosenborg clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Rosenborg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Rosenborg vs Tromso| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.15 | |
| 1.60 | 4.05 | 5.00 | 1.64 | 2.21 | 1.64 | 2.10 | |
| 1.60 | 4.10 | 5.00 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.65 | 4.27 | 5.12 | 1.67 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 1.56 | 3.90 | 4.84 | 1.65 | 2.23 | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.64 | 4.14 | 5.11 | 1.66 | 2.24 | 1.64 | 2.13 | |
| 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.30 | 1.60 | 2.18 | 1.56 | 2.23 | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 3.85 | 4.90 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 2.12 |
Superbet | 1.74 | 3.80 | 4.30 | 1.61 | 2.22 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Tromso leads 5-4)The head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Tromso shows 4 wins for Rosenborg, 5 wins for Tromso, and 1 draw over the last 10 matches. This indicates a closely contested rivalry, with Tromso having a slight edge. The scorelines reflect a mix of narrow and more decisive outcomes, including a notable 4-3 victory for Tromso and a 4-1 win for Rosenborg. The matches have been relatively high-scoring, with several encounters featuring three or more goals. Tromso's last victory came in April 2026, suggesting they have maintained competitive performances in recent fixtures against Rosenborg.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 20 | 34 | 50 | WWDWL |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 50 | LWWWW |
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 38 | WLLDL |
| 4 |  Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 36 | LWWWW |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 33 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 | LWWLD |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 21 | WLWLD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 19 | LLWDL |
| 16 |  Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 16 | LWLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRosenborg have won 12 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Ostersunds FK 2-0 and beat Tromso 5-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 4D 14L from the last 36 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Tromso have won 9 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Alta 1-2 and lost to Rosenborg 5-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 8D 10L from the last 40 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersRosenborg4
Tromso4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
T. Hansen has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by T. Hansen to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Rosenborg have averaged 6.3 corners per match at home; Tromso 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Rosenborg have generated 1.63 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 5.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Rosenborg player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
