Lillestrom vs Valerenga Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lillestrom vs Valerenga
Match Preview
The model favours Lillestrom to win against Valerenga, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lillestrom currently sits in 5th place in the Eliteserien standings, boasting a record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses from 17 matches. Their goal difference of +2 reflects a relatively balanced performance, although they have struggled recently with only one win in their last five matches. Their ability to score 23 goals while conceding 21 indicates a team that can compete but is also prone to lapses in defence. Valerenga, on the other hand, is positioned 11th and has a less favourable record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses. With 21 points, they have a negative goal difference of -6, having scored 28 goals but conceded 34. Their recent form includes two wins in their last five matches, suggesting some signs of improvement, but they still lack consistency. This inconsistency in defence has been a significant issue, which could be exploited by Lillestrom. The model gives Lillestrom a win probability of around 55%, with the projected score at 2-1. One key market percentage is that Lillestrom is favoured to win at a rate of 55%. However, a potential caveat is Lillestrom's recent form, as they have shown vulnerability in their last few matches. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Lillestrom have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Lillestrom are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lillestrom vs Valerenga| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.42 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.65 | |
| 1.95 | 3.88 | 3.32 | 1.37 | 2.68 | 1.38 | 2.76 | |
| 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.25 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 2.88 | |
| 2.02 | 4.11 | 3.37 | 1.43 | 2.91 | — | — | |
| 1.99 | 3.65 | 3.02 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.20 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.00 | 3.97 | 3.40 | 1.37 | 2.68 | 1.38 | 2.81 | |
| 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.55 | 1.44 | 2.55 | 1.43 | 2.55 | |
| 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
Betano | 1.98 | 3.80 | 3.35 | 1.42 | 2.75 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
Superbet | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.42 | 2.72 | 1.42 | 2.67 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.13 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lillestrom leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Lillestrom and Valerenga, Lillestrom has won 4 times, drawn 3 times, and Valerenga has won once. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with a mix of results that includes several close encounters. Notably, Lillestrom has achieved four victories, with two of those wins coming by a score of 2-0, suggesting they have had the upper hand in recent fixtures. Valerenga's sole win was in 2022, and they have not won against Lillestrom since then. The frequency of draws and the low-scoring nature of some matches reflect the tight nature of this contest.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 20 | 34 | 50 | WWDWL |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 50 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 38 | WLLDL |
| 4 |  Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 36 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 33 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 | LWWLD |
| 12 | Valerenga | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 23 | DLDLD |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 21 | WLWLD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 19 | LLWDL |
| 16 |  Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 16 | LWLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLillestrom have won 10 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 10. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lillestrom 1-2 and beat Lillestrom 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 6D 17L from the last 40 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Valerenga have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Skeid 1-4 and lost to Lillestrom 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 14L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLillestrom4-1-4-1Confirmed
Valerenga4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
5 playersLillestrom3
Valerenga2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Saggi has averaged 6.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Lillestrom have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; Valerenga 6.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lillestrom have generated 1.37 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lillestrom player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
