Ham-Kam vs Tromso Prediction, Tips & Odds
Ham-Kam vs Tromso
Match Preview
The model favours Tromso to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tromso currently sits in a strong second position in the league, having accumulated 25 points from 13 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid offensive performance, scoring 18 goals, while their defence has also held up well, conceding only 14. With 7 wins, 4 draws, and just 2 losses, Tromso's consistency has been a key factor in their push for the top of the table. Ham-Kam, on the other hand, is in 6th place with 17 points from 10 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses shows they are competitive, but they have struggled to maintain the same level of form as Tromso. While Ham-Kam has managed to score 17 goals, their goal difference of +1 indicates that they have not been as defensively solid, conceding 16 goals. Their recent form, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last five matches, reflects some inconsistency that could be a concern against a stronger opponent. The model gives Tromso a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one potential caveat is that Ham-Kam could exploit any defensive lapses from Tromso, especially given their home advantage. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Tromso have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Tromso are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Ham-Kam vs Tromso| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.45 | 3.20 | 2.15 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 1.95 | |
| 3.62 | 3.18 | 2.08 | 1.95 | 1.82 | 1.74 | 1.95 | |
| 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 3.84 | 3.28 | 2.13 | 2.00 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 3.19 | 3.16 | 2.08 | 1.97 | 1.89 | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.15 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 3.70 | 3.25 | 2.13 | 1.98 | 1.85 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
| 3.55 | 3.05 | 2.15 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 1.76 | 1.93 | |
Betano | 3.60 | 3.10 | 2.12 | 2.00 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.98 |
Superbet | 3.35 | 3.15 | 2.20 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.77 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.05 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Tromso leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Ham-Kam and Tromso, Tromso has won 7 times, with Ham-Kam securing just 1 victory and 2 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided contest, with Tromso often winning by a single goal, as seen in four of their victories. The matches have also featured a mix of tight encounters, including a 3-3 draw and a 0-0 stalemate. Ham-Kam's last win against Tromso came in March 2024, suggesting a challenging historical trend for them against this opponent.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 8 | Ham-Kam | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 21 | WLLLD |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHam-Kam have won 8 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Ham-Kam 1-4 and beat Ham-Kam 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 12L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Tromso have won 7 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat CFR 1907 Cluj 0-5 and beat Aalesund 2-6.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 6D 7L from the last 32 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
3 playersHam-Kam2
Tromso1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Ham-Kam have averaged 3.2 corners per match at home; Tromso 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Tromso have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Tromso player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
