Valerenga vs Aalesund Prediction, Tips & Odds
Valerenga vs Aalesund
Match Preview
The model favours Valerenga to win against Aalesund, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Valerenga currently sits in 9th place in the Eliteserien standings, having accumulated 14 points from 11 matches. Their season form reflects a mixed performance with four wins, two draws, and five losses. Key to their season has been their goal-scoring, with 13 goals scored, though they have also conceded 17, resulting in a negative goal difference of -4. On the other hand, Aalesund finds themselves in 13th place with 11 points, having achieved two wins, five draws, and four losses from their 11 matches. They have managed to score 15 goals, but their defensive struggles are evident with 20 goals conceded, giving them a goal difference of -5. Aalesund's recent form has been more encouraging, as they remain unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws, indicating a potential turnaround. The model output suggests Valerenga has a higher win probability in this matchup, although Aalesund’s recent unbeaten streak could pose a challenge. The key market percentage leans towards Valerenga as the favourite. However, the unpredictability of football means that if Aalesund continues their strong form, they could secure a surprise result. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model utilizes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Valerenga have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Valerenga win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Valerenga are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Valerenga vs Aalesund| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.33 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.40 | |
| 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.30 | 1.40 | 2.57 | 1.45 | 2.51 | |
| 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.71 | 4.43 | 4.44 | 1.45 | 2.83 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.76 | 3.82 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.70 | 4.30 | 4.39 | 1.40 | 2.57 | 1.45 | 2.56 | |
| 1.70 | 3.95 | 4.25 | 1.46 | 2.48 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
Betano | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.25 | 1.47 | 2.57 | 1.47 | 2.50 |
Superbet | 1.71 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.48 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Valerenga leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Valerenga and Aalesund, Valerenga has won 7 times, with 3 matches ending in a draw, while Aalesund has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a notable dominance by Valerenga, with several heavy wins, including a 4-1 and a 5-1 victory. Aalesund managed to draw twice, but overall, the results have largely favored Valerenga, reflecting a one-sided rivalry. Aalesund's last win against Valerenga dates back further than this sample, highlighting their struggles in this matchup.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 9 | Valerenga | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 20 | LWWLW |
| 14 | Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonValerenga have won 11 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Ham-Kam 0-3 and beat Aalesund 6-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 10L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aalesund have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Valerenga 6-1 and beat Kristiansund BK 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 12L from the last 27 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedValerenga4-4-2Confirmed
Aalesund
Not yet available
Unavailable Players
9 playersValerenga4
Aalesund5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Higraff has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by D. Higraff to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Valerenga have averaged 7.1 corners per match at home; Aalesund 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Valerenga have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Valerenga player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
