Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Match Preview
The model favours Sarpsborg 08 FF to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Kristiansund BK. Sarpsborg currently sits in 7th place in the Eliteserien standings, having accumulated 14 points from 11 matches. Their season form shows a mixed bag, with four wins, two draws, and five losses. Notably, they have scored 13 goals while conceding 16, reflecting a goal difference of -3. Their recent form has shown improvement, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating a team that is gradually finding its rhythm. On the other hand, Kristiansund BK is struggling at the bottom of the table in 14th place, with only 11 points from the same number of matches. Their record of three wins, two draws, and six losses highlights their difficulties this season. They have scored just 11 goals while conceding 18, resulting in a goal difference of -7. Kristiansund's recent form includes only two wins in their last five matches, which suggests they are lacking consistency and confidence as they approach this fixture. The model outputs a win probability of approximately 60% for Sarpsborg, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Sarpsborg winning by a one-goal margin. However, Kristiansund could pose a challenge if they manage to capitalize on their home advantage. For more details on how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sarpsborg 08 FF are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.12 | 1.49 | 2.32 | 1.46 | 2.49 | |
| 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 3.20 | 3.79 | 2.19 | 1.57 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 2.92 | 3.48 | 2.18 | 1.55 | 2.44 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.17 | 3.68 | 2.17 | 1.56 | 2.38 | 1.47 | 2.50 | |
| 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.14 | 1.61 | 2.14 | 1.52 | 2.33 | |
Betano | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.18 | 1.60 | 2.32 | 1.47 | 2.50 |
Superbet | 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 1.63 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF stands at 3 wins for each team with 2 draws in their last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced rivalry, with several matches ending in tight contests, including three draws and four games decided by a single goal. Notably, both teams have had moments of dominance, with Kristiansund BK achieving a couple of 2-0 and 3-1 victories, while Sarpsborg 08 FF also secured a 3-2 win. Overall, the results reflect a competitive matchup rather than a lopsided affair.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 22 | DWDWW |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKristiansund BK have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Kristiansund BK 1-2 and drew with Kristiansund BK 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 7D 13L from the last 27 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-3 and drew with Kristiansund BK 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 8L from the last 25 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersKristiansund BK4
Sarpsborg 08 FF2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kristiansund BK have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sarpsborg 08 FF have generated 1.41 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sarpsborg 08 FF player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
