Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win against Kuressaare, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Flora Tallinn is currently positioned second in the Meistriliiga, showcasing a strong season with 18 wins, 1 draw, and only 10 losses from their 29 matches. They have scored 59 goals while conceding 39, resulting in a goal difference of +20. Their recent form has been impressive, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches, indicating a team in good shape heading into this fixture. On the other hand, Kuressaare finds itself in eighth place, having accumulated just 29 points from 29 matches, with a record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 16 losses. They have struggled defensively, allowing 49 goals and only managing to score 31, leading to a goal difference of -18. Their recent form shows only one win in the last five matches, which could indicate ongoing difficulties as they face a high-caliber opponent. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 70% for Flora Tallinn, with the projected score of 2-0 reflecting their superiority in the standings and recent performances. However, a caveat to consider is that Flora Tallinn could be caught off guard by a determined Kuressaare side looking to upset the odds. The full method behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as it is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Flora Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.05 | 3.90 | 1.63 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.48 | 2.40 | |
| 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.65 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 3.90 | 4.17 | 1.70 | 1.49 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 3.77 | 3.62 | 1.64 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.70 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.67 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 4.13 | 3.90 | 1.65 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.48 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.67 | — | — | — | — |
BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.60 | 1.40 | 2.06 | 1.36 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flora Tallinn leads 9-0)In the last 10 matches between Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn, Flora Tallinn has won 9 times, with 1 draw and no victories for Kuressaare. The scorelines indicate a strong dominance by Flora Tallinn, as they have secured several convincing wins, including a 5-0 victory and multiple matches with a margin of at least two goals. The lone draw occurred in April 2024, while Kuressaare's last win against Flora Tallinn dates back well beyond this sample. Overall, the historical record suggests a significant advantage for Flora Tallinn in these encounters.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 87 | 22 | 65 | 81 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 32 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 62 | 44 | 18 | 58 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 57 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 54 | 33 | 21 | 51 | LDLWW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 47 | LLWLL |
| 6 |  Laagri | 32 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 35 | LWWDL |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | 50 | 74 | -24 | 31 | WLLLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 20 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKuressaare have won 10 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 0-2 and beat Flora Tallinn 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 21L from the last 44 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Flora Tallinn have won 12 of their last 23 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kuressaare 2-0 and beat Nõmme United 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 27W 3D 18L from the last 48 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKuressaare
No reported absences
Flora Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kuressaare average 1.5 goals per match at home; Flora Tallinn 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 56% of their matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
