Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction, Tips & Odds
Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Match Preview
The model favours Molde to win against Sarpsborg 08 FF, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Molde currently sits in 5th place in the Eliteserien, having accumulated 20 points from 13 matches. Their season has been a mix of highs and lows, with 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses. While they have scored 21 goals, their defensive record shows some vulnerability, conceding 17 goals which gives them a goal difference of +4. Despite recent inconsistencies, including only one win in their last five matches, they remain a competitive side. Sarpsborg 08 FF, placed 8th with 18 points from the same number of matches, has had a more positive trend in recent form, with 3 wins in their last five outings. They have scored 14 goals but have struggled defensively, allowing 16, resulting in a goal difference of -2. Their overall record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses indicates a team that can compete but lacks the same consistency as Molde. The model output suggests a win probability of approximately 55% for Molde, while Sarpsborg 08 FF has around a 25% chance of victory. A key market to consider is the over 2.5 goals, given both teams' scoring potential. However, if Molde's defensive frailties resurface, it could lead to a closer match than expected. The full method, which analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, courtesy of The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Molde have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Molde win as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Molde are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.67 | 4.33 | 4.20 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
| 1.66 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 2.64 | 1.44 | 2.55 | |
| 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.33 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 4.30 | 4.43 | 1.38 | 2.64 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 1.41 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 2.55 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Molde leads 5-4)Molde hold the edge in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 meetings with 1 draws and 4 Sarpsborg 08 FF wins. The record points to a tie Molde have controlled for years, though the draws show Sarpsborg 08 FF have at times kept it tight.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 11 | 26 | 35 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Viking | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 14 | 20 | 34 | DWWLW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 31 | WWDDL |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 5 | Molde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 23 | WLDWL |
| 6 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 21 | WDWWW |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 12 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 | LDLLL |
| 16 |  Start | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 34 | -18 | 10 | WLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMolde have won 9 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Molde 1-2 and lost to Molde 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 10L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-0 and lost to Lillestrom 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 4D 8L from the last 24 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMolde
No reported absences
Sarpsborg 08 FF
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Molde have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Molde have generated 1.52 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Molde player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
