Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas Prediction, Tips & Odds
Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas
Match Preview
The model favours FC Dallas to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against the Portland Timbers. FC Dallas currently sits in a strong fourth position in the league standings, having accumulated 25 points from 15 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid attack, scoring 30 goals, which highlights their offensive capabilities. With four wins in their last five matches, FC Dallas is demonstrating consistent form that could translate into success against lower-ranked opponents. In contrast, the Portland Timbers find themselves in 13th place, with only 14 points from 14 games. Their season has been challenging, as they have managed just four wins, and their goal difference of -6 indicates struggles both defensively and offensively. The team's recent form shows they have secured only one win in their last five matches, which may dampen their confidence going into this fixture. According to the model, FC Dallas has a win probability of approximately 60%, while the Portland Timbers have around a 20% chance of winning. One potential caveat for FC Dallas could be their recent inconsistency, as they suffered a loss in their last match, which might impact their momentum. For a detailed explanation of the methodology behind this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Portland Timbers have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Portland Timbers are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.28 | 3.85 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.38 | 2.80 | |
| 2.28 | 3.66 | 2.77 | 1.39 | 2.61 | 1.37 | 2.80 | |
| 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 2.30 | 3.93 | 2.91 | 1.44 | 2.87 | — | — | |
| 2.28 | 3.63 | 2.67 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.70 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.90 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.75 | 1.47 | 2.60 | 1.41 | 2.70 | |
Betano | 2.37 | 3.75 | 2.77 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.82 |
Superbet | 2.40 | 3.75 | 2.72 | 1.50 | 2.60 | 1.43 | 2.70 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Dallas leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Portland Timbers and FC Dallas, both teams have won 4 times, with 2 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of close contests and some lopsided results; notably, FC Dallas secured two heavy victories with 4-1 margins. The presence of four draws suggests that many of these encounters have been tightly contested. The last win for Portland Timbers came in June 2023, while FC Dallas has had a slight edge in terms of overall victories in this period.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 6 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 27 | DLDWW |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 24 | WWDWL |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 16 | DLLDD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPortland Timbers have won 6 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Puebla 5-2 and beat Seattle Sounders 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 5D 11L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC Dallas have won 9 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat FC Dallas 0-1 and drew with Los Angeles Galaxy 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 6L from the last 27 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedPortland Timbers4-3-3Confirmed
FC Dallas5-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersPortland Timbers5
FC Dallas5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Portland Timbers have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; FC Dallas 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Portland Timbers have generated 1.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Portland Timbers player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
