San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
Match Preview
The model favours San Lorenzo to win against Deportivo Riestra, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Currently positioned 7th in the league, San Lorenzo has had a mixed season with 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, accumulating 22 points. Their goal difference of zero, with 14 goals scored and 14 conceded, suggests a defensively balanced team. However, their recent form shows a struggle, with only one win in their last five matches. On the other hand, Deportivo Riestra sits in 15th place with just 11 points from 16 matches, featuring a record of 1 win, 8 draws, and 7 losses. They have scored only 5 goals while conceding 12, resulting in a negative goal difference of -7. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, as they have not secured a victory in their last five matches, managing only four draws and one loss. The model gives San Lorenzo a 41.6% probability of winning, while Deportivo Riestra's chances stand at 25.0%. The predicted score reflects a low-scoring affair, with only a 28.2% likelihood of more than 2.5 goals. A key caveat is San Lorenzo's recent inconsistency, which could lead to an unexpected result. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model focused on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
San Lorenzo have kept a clean sheet in 49% of matches. Deportivo Riestra average 0.6 goals per game.
San Lorenzo manage games at home, conceding just 0.81 goals per match. Deportivo Riestra score 0.59 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 19.3% probability.
San Lorenzo have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 San Lorenzo win as the most likely scoreline at 19.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature San Lorenzo clean sheets, in line with their 49% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. San Lorenzo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.45 | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.88 | 1.32 | 2.31 | 1.53 | |
| 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| 2.55 | 2.73 | 3.65 | 3.29 | 1.36 | — | — | |
| 2.41 | 2.66 | 2.95 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 2.70 | 3.20 | — | — | 2.40 | 1.53 | |
| 2.50 | 2.80 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 2.38 | 1.53 | |
| 2.50 | 2.81 | 3.37 | 2.88 | 1.32 | 2.31 | 1.55 | |
Betano | 2.55 | 2.82 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.30 | 1.57 |
BetVictor | 2.45 | 2.88 | 3.30 | 3.13 | 1.36 | 2.38 | 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (evenly matched 1-1)In the last five encounters between San Lorenzo and Deportivo Riestra, the record stands at one win for San Lorenzo, three draws, and one win for Deportivo Riestra. This indicates a tightly contested rivalry, with four of the five matches ending in draws or a single-goal margin. The scorelines reveal a pattern of low-scoring affairs, as only one match featured more than one goal. Deportivo Riestra's last victory came in May 2024, suggesting that while they have been competitive, they have not consistently found success against San Lorenzo in recent matchups.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LDWLW |
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WDWLW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | WDWLD |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WLDWD |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 | WWLLD |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | WLDWD |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | WLLLL |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Lorenzo have won 9 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Deportivo Riestra 1-0 and beat Talleres Cordoba 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 16D 10L from the last 37 games (30% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Deportivo Riestra have won 0 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Deportivo Riestra 1-0 and drew with Platense 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 17D 15L from the last 37 games (14% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSan Lorenzo
No reported absences
Deportivo Riestra
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Bruno Amiconi has averaged 7.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
San Lorenzo have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Deportivo Riestra 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Lorenzo have generated 0.76 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 30% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Lorenzo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
