Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam
Match Preview
The model favours Sandefjord to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 8th place, Sandefjord has shown some resilience lately, securing three wins in their last five matches. Their goal-scoring has been modest, with 10 goals scored and 13 conceded this season, but their recent form suggests they are improving, particularly at home. Ham-Kam, positioned 6th, has had a slightly better season overall with 17 points from 10 matches, scoring 17 goals and conceding 16. They have also displayed a mixed form recently, with three wins and a draw in their last five matches. However, their defensive record raises concerns, especially when facing a Sandefjord side that is looking to capitalize on home advantage. The model outputs a win probability of 49.2% for Sandefjord, 25.7% for a draw, and 25.1% for Ham-Kam. With over 2.5 goals projected at 56.0%, this match could see plenty of action. One potential caveat for Sandefjord is their inconsistency, which could be exploited by a Ham-Kam side eager to maintain their position in the top half of the table. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results over the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
Sandefjord have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sandefjord are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 1.86 | 3.64 | 3.84 | 1.70 | 2.11 | 1.60 | 2.16 | |
| 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 1.94 | 3.78 | 3.94 | 1.74 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.33 | 3.38 | 1.71 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.60 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.90 | 3.72 | 3.93 | 1.72 | 2.14 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
| 1.94 | 3.60 | 3.55 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.58 | 2.18 | |
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.70 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 1.88 | 3.65 | 3.80 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.18 |
Superbet | 1.92 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.68 | 2.12 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.67 | 2.04 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Ham-Kam leads 7-2)In their last 10 encounters, Sandefjord has won 2 matches, drawn 1, and Ham-Kam has secured 7 victories. This record indicates a clear advantage for Ham-Kam, with several matches resulting in decisive wins. Notably, Ham-Kam has achieved four victories by a margin of at least two goals, highlighting their dominance in these fixtures. The lone draw and Sandefjord's two wins suggest that while they can compete, they have struggled to consistently overcome Ham-Kam. The last time Sandefjord defeated Ham-Kam was in April 2025, indicating a significant gap since their last success against this opponent.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 11 | 26 | 35 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Viking | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 14 | 20 | 34 | DWWLW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 31 | WWDDL |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 5 |  Molde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 23 | WLDWL |
| 6 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 21 | WDWWW |
| 9 | Ham-Kam | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 18 | LLLDD |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 15 | LLDLD |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 12 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 | LDLLL |
| 16 |  Start | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 34 | -18 | 10 | WLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSandefjord have won 9 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Sandefjord 2-2 and drew with Sandefjord 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 7L from the last 24 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Ham-Kam have won 2 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Ham-Kam 1-0 and lost to Bodo/Glimt 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 12L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSandefjord4-3-3Confirmed
Ham-Kam5-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
6 playersSandefjord5
Ham-Kam1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Sletner has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sandefjord have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Ham-Kam 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sandefjord have generated 1.09 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sandefjord player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
