Sao Paulo vs Santos Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sao Paulo vs Santos
Match Preview
The model favours Santos to win this match against Sao Paulo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Santos currently sits in 8th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 38 points from 27 matches. Their season has been marked by a balanced offensive and defensive performance, scoring 41 goals while conceding 40. Santos has shown a strong recent form, with four wins in their last five matches, indicating a positive trajectory as they approach this fixture. In contrast, Sao Paulo is in 11th place with 36 points, having won 10, drawn 6, and lost 11 of their 27 matches. Their goal difference stands at +2, with 32 goals scored and 30 conceded. However, Sao Paulo's recent form has been less consistent, with only two wins in their last five matches, which could hinder their confidence heading into this clash. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for Santos, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage indicates a slight edge for Santos in the betting odds. However, a potential caveat is Sao Paulo's home advantage, which could play a significant role in the match's outcome. The full method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of matches. Santos average 1.5 goals per game.
Sao Paulo manage games at home, conceding just 0.98 goals per match. Santos score 1.54 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.6% probability.
Sao Paulo have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sao Paulo clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sao Paulo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sao Paulo vs Santos| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.95 | 3.32 | 3.82 | 2.09 | 1.69 | 1.87 | 1.81 | |
| 1.95 | 3.25 | 4.00 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 1.99 | 3.41 | 4.20 | 2.22 | 1.70 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.02 | 3.50 | 2.21 | 1.66 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.20 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.01 | 3.42 | 3.94 | 2.15 | 1.74 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.45 | 4.20 | 2.15 | 1.75 | 1.88 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.00 | 2.08 | 1.64 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Santos stands at 4 wins for Sao Paulo, 4 wins for Santos, and 2 draws over their last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with both teams having equal success. The scorelines suggest a mix of tight contests and a few decisive victories, with Sao Paulo's 4-1 win in July 2023 being the most notable heavy win. Additionally, the matches have featured a few low-scoring draws, particularly the 1-1 and 0-0 results, demonstrating that both sides can also struggle to find the net against each other.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 45 | WLDWW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSao Paulo have won 16 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 and beat Vitoria 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 11D 15L from the last 47 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Santos have won 9 of their last 27 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include beat Santos 1-2 and lost to Atletico-MG 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 17D 14L from the last 52 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSao Paulo3-4-2-1Confirmed
Santos4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
13 playersSao Paulo8
Santos5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Matheus Delgado Candancan has averaged 5.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Sao Paulo have averaged 7.1 corners per match at home; Santos 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sao Paulo have generated 1.47 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sao Paulo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
