Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino Prediction, Tips & Odds
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino
Match Preview
The model favours Palmeiras to win against RB Bragantino, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Palmeiras currently sits in second place in the Serie A standings, boasting an impressive record of 17 wins, 9 draws, and only 3 losses. Their goal difference of +27 highlights a solid defence, having conceded just 21 goals while scoring 48. Recent form shows they have won three of their last five matches, which indicates a strong momentum as they push for the title. On the other hand, RB Bragantino is positioned 11th in the league and has struggled to find consistency this season, with 10 wins, 7 draws, and 12 losses. Their goal difference of just +1 suggests they have been somewhat vulnerable defensively, having scored 34 goals but conceded 33. Recent form is concerning, as they have not won in their last five matches, with two draws and three losses, which could impact their confidence heading into this match. The model indicates a strong win probability for Palmeiras, with the projected score at 2-0. However, a potential caveat is that if RB Bragantino manages to exploit any defensive lapses from Palmeiras, they could pose a threat. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please see the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.7% probability.
Palmeiras have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Palmeiras win as the most likely scoreline at 13.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Palmeiras clean sheets, in line with their 45% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Palmeiras are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.54 | 4.05 | 5.60 | 1.73 | 2.04 | 1.77 | 1.92 | |
| 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.53 | 4.39 | 5.82 | 1.71 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 1.48 | 3.76 | 4.94 | 1.69 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.53 | 4.10 | 6.25 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.59 | 4.18 | 5.77 | 1.77 | 2.09 | 1.77 | 1.94 | |
Betano | 1.57 | 4.30 | 5.70 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.75 | 1.67 | 2.04 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Palmeiras leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino, Palmeiras has won 6 times, there have been 3 draws, and RB Bragantino has won once. This record indicates a strong advantage for Palmeiras, particularly highlighted by several decisive victories, including a 5-1 win and a 2-0 win. The matches have featured some tightly contested games, evident in the three draws and a lone win for Bragantino, which occurred in October 2023. Overall, the results suggest that while Bragantino has had some success, Palmeiras has largely dominated this fixture historically.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 41 | DWDLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPalmeiras have won 20 of their last 26 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Fluminense 0-1 and beat Corinthians 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 34W 12D 5L from the last 51 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
RB Bragantino have won 5 of their last 23 matches on the road, drawing 10 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with RB Bragantino 1-1 and lost to Atletico-MG 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 15D 16L from the last 48 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersPalmeiras4
RB Bragantino4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Braulio da Silva Machado has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Palmeiras have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; RB Bragantino 7.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Palmeiras have generated 1.64 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Palmeiras player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
