Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians
Match Preview
The model favours Vasco DA Gama to win against Corinthians, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Vasco currently sits in 14th place with 35 points, and their recent form shows a notable upturn, having secured four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This resurgence has improved their goal difference to -6, indicating they are beginning to find their scoring touch, with 36 goals scored this season. On the other hand, Corinthians are positioned just below Vasco in 16th place with 32 points. Their season has been challenging, particularly in recent weeks, as they have not won any of their last five matches, suffering four losses and managing only one draw. This poor form has contributed to a goal difference of -4, with only 30 goals scored, highlighting their struggles in both attack and defense. According to the model, Vasco has a win probability of approximately 55%, while Corinthians sits at 25%. The key market percentage to watch is the odds for Vasco to win, which reflect their current form advantage. However, a caveat exists; if Vasco fails to maintain their recent momentum or if Corinthians manages to turn their form around, the outcome could be different. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches. Corinthians average 1.0 goals per game.
Vasco DA Gama manage games at home, conceding just 1.10 goals per match. Corinthians score 1.02 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Vasco DA Gama have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Vasco DA Gama win as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Vasco DA Gama clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Vasco DA Gama are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.66 | 3.70 | 4.95 | 1.94 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.81 | |
| 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 1.68 | 3.91 | 4.96 | 1.98 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.70 | 3.70 | 5.00 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.71 | 3.82 | 5.10 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.90 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.00 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Corinthians leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians, Corinthians leads with 7 wins, while Vasco has won once and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency towards Corinthians dominating these encounters, with several matches resulting in clear victories, including a 3-0 win and a 4-2 win. Vasco's only victory in this stretch was a narrow 2-0 win. The draw frequency is relatively low, with only 20% of the matches ending in stalemates, suggesting that when these teams meet, one side often takes the upper hand. Vasco has not won against Corinthians since their victory in 2024.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 15 | Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 35 | LDWWW |
| 16 | Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 33 | DLLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVasco DA Gama have won 13 of their last 26 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Boca Juniors 1-3 and drew with Remo 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 15D 16L from the last 52 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Corinthians have won 6 of their last 26 matches on the road, drawing 11 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Palmeiras 4-1 and lost to Internacional 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 15D 18L from the last 50 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersVasco DA Gama3
Corinthians3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Wilton Sampaio has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vasco DA Gama have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Corinthians 6.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Vasco DA Gama have generated 1.47 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Vasco DA Gama player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
