Mirassol vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo
Match Preview
The model favours a win for Sao Paulo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Mirassol. Sao Paulo currently sits in 9th place in the Serie A standings and has shown a competitive edge throughout the season, with 11 wins from 30 matches. Their goal difference stands at zero, indicating an average performance in attack and defence, but they have managed to secure points consistently, particularly in recent encounters. On the other hand, Mirassol is positioned 15th and has struggled with a negative goal difference of -9. However, they have shown resilience lately with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, which highlights a potential upswing in form. Despite this, their overall record shows a challenging season, with more losses than wins and a goal tally that suggests difficulties in converting chances into goals. According to the model, Sao Paulo has a win probability of approximately 55%. While they have the advantage in the standings and form, Mirassol’s recent performances could pose a threat. If Mirassol continues their positive trend, they could surprise. The full methodology behind these predictions can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals alongside actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 20% of matches. Sao Paulo average 1.2 goals per game.
Mirassol manage games at home, conceding just 1.16 goals per match. Sao Paulo score 1.21 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.7% probability.
Mirassol have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Mirassol are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.08 | 2.02 | 1.74 | 1.78 | 1.90 | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 2.37 | 3.26 | 3.13 | 2.08 | 1.76 | — | — | |
| 2.19 | 3.01 | 2.78 | 2.02 | 1.80 | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.38 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.37 | 3.28 | 3.18 | 2.07 | 1.79 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
Betano | 2.37 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.07 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 1.97 | 1.72 | 1.75 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Mirassol and Sao Paulo stands at 4 wins for each team and 2 draws over the last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, although the scorelines suggest some variability in performance. Mirassol has recorded several convincing victories, including two 3-0 wins, while Sao Paulo has also had strong results, such as a 4-1 win. The matches tend to be competitive, with a mix of narrow and more decisive outcomes. The last time Sao Paulo defeated Mirassol was in April 2026, highlighting a recent struggle for consistency against their opponents.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 36 | WLDWD |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMirassol have won 11 of their last 25 matches at home, drawing 9 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Internacional 2-0 and beat Botafogo 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 15D 18L from the last 49 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Sao Paulo have won 5 of their last 23 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Cruzeiro 2-0 and lost to Palmeiras 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 11D 15L from the last 47 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersMirassol3
Sao Paulo5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Lucas Casagrande has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Mirassol have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Sao Paulo 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Mirassol have generated 1.35 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Mirassol player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
