Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking
Match Preview
The model favours Viking to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting at the top of the table, Viking has demonstrated exceptional form this season with nine wins from ten matches, accumulating 27 points. Their offensive strength is evident, having scored 29 goals while conceding only 10, resulting in a remarkable goal difference of +19. This attacking prowess, combined with their recent five-match winning streak, underscores their position as strong title contenders. In contrast, Sarpsborg 08 FF finds themselves in seventh place with 14 points from 11 matches. Their season has been inconsistent, marked by four wins, two draws, and five losses. Scoring just 13 goals while conceding 16 highlights their struggles in both defence and attack. Recent form has not been promising either, with only one win in their last five matches, suggesting they may have difficulty competing against the league leaders. According to the model, Viking has a win probability of 52.3%, while Sarpsborg's chances sit at 23.8%. The prediction also suggests a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match at 62.7%. However, one caveat is that if Sarpsborg can find their rhythm and capitalize on Viking's occasional defensive lapses, they could pose a significant threat. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Viking have been the stronger side, winning 77% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Viking win as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Viking are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.20 | 4.33 | 1.67 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
| 4.50 | 4.25 | 1.63 | 1.35 | 2.76 | 1.42 | 2.61 | |
| 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.62 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 4.66 | 4.58 | 1.66 | 1.38 | 3.13 | — | — | |
| 4.07 | 3.98 | 1.64 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.65 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.62 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 4.60 | 4.34 | 1.67 | 1.35 | 2.76 | 1.42 | 2.66 | |
| 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.70 | 1.42 | 2.60 | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
| 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.65 | 1.36 | 2.80 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
Betano | 4.35 | 4.25 | 1.65 | 1.42 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.50 |
Superbet | 3.85 | 3.90 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 2.47 | 1.50 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.62 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Viking leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking, Viking has won 6 times, Sarpsborg 08 FF has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, but Viking has a clear edge with more victories. Notably, four matches ended in draws or narrow margins, including a high-scoring 3-3 tie and several 1-0 results. Sarpsborg 08 FF's last victory over Viking was in October 2022, suggesting a trend in Viking's favor in recent encounters. Overall, Viking's dominance in this head-to-head record is evident, with Sarpsborg 08 FF struggling to secure wins.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 11 | 26 | 35 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Viking | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 14 | 20 | 34 | DWWLW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 31 | WWDDL |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 5 |  Molde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 23 | WLDWL |
| 6 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 21 | WDWWW |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 12 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 | LDLLL |
| 16 |  Start | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 34 | -18 | 10 | WLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSarpsborg 08 FF have won 8 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 and beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 4D 8L from the last 24 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Viking have won 9 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Viking 1-2 and lost to Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 3D 3L from the last 26 games (77% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSarpsborg 08 FF4-4-2Confirmed
Viking4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersSarpsborg 08 FF3
Viking7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Grotta has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sarpsborg 08 FF have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Viking 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Viking have generated 1.93 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 77% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Viking player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
