SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Tips & Odds
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
Match Preview
The model favours SC Paderborn 07 to win this match against Hamburger SV, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Paderborn currently sits in 15th place in the Bundesliga, having secured only one win from their first five matches this season. Their goal-scoring has been modest, with just three goals scored while conceding seven, resulting in a goal difference of -4. However, they have shown some resilience, winning two of their last five matches. In contrast, Hamburger SV occupies 11th place and has managed two wins but has struggled defensively, conceding 15 goals in five matches, which gives them a goal difference of -10. Their recent form includes three wins in their last five matches, indicating a potential for improvement. However, their inconsistency is evident, as they have also suffered two losses in that same stretch. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for Paderborn, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to consider is the over/under on total goals, which is likely to be influenced by both teams' defensive vulnerabilities. One caveat to this prediction is Paderborn's ability to maintain their recent form against a higher-ranked opponent, as they have faced challenges throughout the season. The full method for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
SC Paderborn 07 have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. SC Paderborn 07 are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.34 | 3.82 | 2.83 | 1.53 | 2.31 | 1.48 | 2.46 | |
| 2.40 | 3.63 | 2.80 | 1.60 | 2.37 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.50 | |
| 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.80 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.40 | 3.92 | 2.91 | 1.64 | 2.47 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.70 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV stands at 4 wins for each side, with 2 matches ending in draws over the last 10 encounters. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with no team having a clear upper hand. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests, with several matches ending in draws or narrow victories, such as the 1-0 and 2-1 results. Notably, both teams have had their share of high-scoring games, but there is no significant trend towards either side dominating historically. The last win for Hamburger SV came in January 2021, suggesting a more recent trend in favor of SC Paderborn 07.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 10 | WWDWL |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 9 | WLWLW |
| 6 |  FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 8 | DLDWW |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 6 | WWLLL |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 | LWLLD |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 | WLLLD |
| 17 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 3 | LLWLL |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSC Paderborn 07 have won 5 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to VfB Stuttgart 0-2 and beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 4L from the last 21 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Hamburger SV have won 7 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Hamburger SV 2-3 and lost to Borussia Dortmund 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 11L from the last 30 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSC Paderborn 07
No reported absences
Hamburger SV
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
SC Paderborn 07 average 1.7 goals per match at home; Hamburger SV 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
SC Paderborn 07 have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 48% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. SC Paderborn 07 player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
