Tromso vs Valerenga Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tromso vs Valerenga
Match Preview
The model favours Tromso to win against Valerenga, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tromso currently sits in a strong second position in the league, with a record of seven wins, four draws, and only two losses from 13 matches. Their goal difference of +4 highlights their relatively solid defense, while they have managed to score 18 goals, indicating a balanced attacking threat. With three wins in their last five matches, Tromso appears to be in good form heading into this fixture. On the other hand, Valerenga is struggling in ninth place, having played 11 matches with only four wins to their name. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, as evidenced by their last five matches, where they failed to secure a win, recording two draws and three losses. With a goal difference of -4, Valerenga has conceded more goals than they've scored, and their overall performance this season suggests they are likely to face challenges against a stronger Tromso side. The model estimates a 53.4% chance of a Tromso victory, a 25.3% likelihood of a draw, and a 21.4% chance for Valerenga to win. One key market percentage to note is the over 2.5 goals at 54.7%. However, a caveat is that if Valerenga can find their scoring form, they may pose a threat to Tromso's defense. The full methodology of our predictions is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Tromso have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Tromso clean sheets, in line with their 52% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Tromso are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tromso vs Valerenga| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.40 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.60 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.75 | 3.96 | 4.68 | 1.78 | 2.10 | — | — | |
| 1.72 | 3.52 | 4.16 | 1.78 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.40 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.74 | 3.84 | 4.71 | 1.77 | 2.07 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
| 1.68 | 3.80 | 4.60 | 1.66 | 2.07 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.40 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.65 | 4.45 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 2.07 |
Superbet | 1.77 | 3.70 | 4.30 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 1.68 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.33 | 1.71 | 1.98 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Valerenga leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Tromso and Valerenga, the record stands at 3 wins for Tromso, 3 draws, and 4 wins for Valerenga. The fixtures reveal a competitive nature, with several closely contested games; five matches ended with a scoreline of 1-0 or 1-1, indicating a tendency for tight encounters. Notably, Tromso's last victory against Valerenga came in May 2025, suggesting a slight advantage for Valerenga in recent encounters. Overall, while the wins are fairly evenly distributed, the frequency of narrow scorelines indicates that both teams are capable of challenging each other effectively.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 11 | 26 | 35 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Viking | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 14 | 20 | 34 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Tromso | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 31 | WWDDL |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 5 |  Molde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 23 | WLDWL |
| 6 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 21 | WDWWW |
| 7 | Valerenga | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 | WWLWL |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 12 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 | LDLLL |
| 16 |  Start | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 34 | -18 | 10 | WLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTromso have won 11 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tromso 4-0 and beat Tromso 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 5L from the last 27 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Valerenga have won 2 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tromso 4-0 and drew with IFK Goteborg 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 10L from the last 27 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedTromso5-3-2Confirmed
Valerenga4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersTromso4
Valerenga3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. T. Sinnes has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Tromso have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Valerenga 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Tromso have generated 1.27 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Tromso player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
