Vaprus vs Trans Narva Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vaprus vs Trans Narva
Match Preview
The model favours Vaprus to win against Trans Narva, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Vaprus currently sits in 7th place in the Meistriliiga, having secured 34 points from 29 matches. Their season form shows a recent uptick, with two wins in their last five matches. Key statistics include a goal difference of -18, which, while not ideal, is significantly better than their upcoming opponents. Trans Narva, on the other hand, is struggling in 10th place with just 19 points. They have only managed five wins all season, and their last five matches reflect a concerning trend, with no wins and only two draws. Their goal difference of -43 highlights significant defensive issues, conceding 65 goals over the season, which could be a critical factor in this match. According to the model, Vaprus has a win probability of approximately 60%, with the projected score of 2-1. However, a potential pitfall for Vaprus could be their inconsistency; if they revert to their previous form of losses, it may open the door for Trans Narva. The full methodology of our analysis is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Vaprus have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Vaprus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vaprus vs Trans Narva| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.42 | 3.34 | 2.47 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 2.34 | |
| 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.52 | 3.44 | 2.56 | 1.60 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 2.41 | 3.18 | 2.38 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.42 | 3.34 | 2.47 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.45 | 1.60 | 2.10 | — | — |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 2.30 | 1.49 | 1.89 | 1.40 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Trans Narva leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Vaprus and Trans Narva, the record stands at 1 win for Vaprus, 4 draws, and 5 wins for Trans Narva. This indicates a slight edge for Trans Narva, who have secured more victories. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests, with four matches ending in draws, and only two instances of heavy wins—both by Trans Narva. Vaprus's sole victory was a 2-0 win, while Trans Narva has won by margins of 2-1, 2-0, and 4-2. Vaprus has not won against Trans Narva since May 2026, highlighting their recent struggles in this matchup.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 87 | 22 | 65 | 81 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 32 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 62 | 44 | 18 | 58 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 57 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 54 | 33 | 21 | 51 | LDLWW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 47 | LLWLL |
| 6 |  Laagri | 32 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 43 | 63 | -20 | 36 | LDDLL |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 35 | LWWDL |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | 50 | 74 | -24 | 31 | WLLLL |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 20 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVaprus have won 9 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Kalju Nomme 2-2 and drew with Trans Narva 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 21L from the last 43 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Trans Narva have won 2 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 14. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Trans Narva 2-1 and drew with Vaprus 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 9D 26L from the last 45 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVaprus
No reported absences
Trans Narva
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Vaprus average 1.7 goals per match at home; Trans Narva 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Vaprus have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 35% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. Vaprus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.