Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction, Tips & Odds
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Match Preview
The model favours Viking to win against Sarpsborg 08 FF, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Viking sits in a strong second place in the league, having played 14 matches with an impressive record of 11 wins, 1 draw, and only 2 losses. They have scored 34 goals while conceding just 14, resulting in a goal difference of +20, which highlights their dominant offensive and defensive capabilities this season. In contrast, Sarpsborg 08 FF is positioned sixth in the standings with 21 points from 14 matches, achieving 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses. They have struggled to find consistent form, with a goal difference of -1, having scored 15 goals and conceded 16. While they have shown resilience by securing three wins in their last five matches, their overall performance this season has not matched Viking's level. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Viking, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of Viking winning by at least a one-goal margin. However, a potential caveat is that Sarpsborg could exploit any defensive lapses from Viking, which may lead to a tighter contest than anticipated. For a complete breakdown of how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Viking have been the stronger side, winning 74% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Viking win as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Viking clean sheets, in line with their 37% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Viking are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.36 | 5.25 | 6.75 | 1.35 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.39 | 5.05 | 6.45 | 1.31 | 2.94 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.29 | 3.30 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 1.43 | 5.48 | 6.53 | 1.36 | 3.24 | — | — | |
| 1.34 | 4.80 | 5.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.42 | 5.00 | 6.25 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.42 | 5.17 | 6.60 | 1.31 | 2.94 | 1.49 | 2.44 | |
| 1.35 | 5.25 | 7.00 | 1.32 | 3.00 | 1.54 | 2.28 | |
| 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 1.39 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.52 | 2.37 |
Superbet | 1.41 | 5.10 | 6.00 | 1.35 | 3.05 | 1.51 | 2.37 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Viking leads 6-2)In the last 10 encounters, Viking has won 6 times, Sarpsborg 08 FF has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable record for Viking, with several narrow wins, including three matches decided by a single goal. Notably, Sarpsborg's victories have been less frequent and included a mix of draws and low-scoring matches, suggesting a competitive but often Viking-dominated series. Sarpsborg last won against Viking in October 2022, highlighting a stretch of dominance from Viking since then.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 22 | DWDWW |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonViking have won 11 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Viking 2-1 and beat Viking 6-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 4D 3L from the last 27 games (74% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-3 and drew with Kristiansund BK 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 5D 8L from the last 26 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedViking4-5-1Confirmed
Sarpsborg 08 FF4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersViking
No reported absences
Sarpsborg 08 FF
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
T. Hansen has averaged 6.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Viking have averaged 6.3 corners per match at home; Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Viking have generated 1.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 74% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Viking player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
