Lillestrom vs Rosenborg Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg
Match Preview
The model favours Lillestrom to win against Rosenborg, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lillestrom currently sits in fourth place in the Eliteserien, having accumulated 25 points from 14 matches with a strong record of eight wins, one draw, and five losses. Their goal difference of +8, alongside 22 goals scored and only 14 conceded, highlights a well-balanced team. Recent form shows Lillestrom has recorded three wins in their last five matches, indicating a solid trajectory as they aim for European competition spots. On the other hand, Rosenborg is positioned in tenth place, with 15 points from 13 matches, which includes four wins, three draws, and six losses. Their goal-scoring has been an area of concern, with only 15 goals scored and 18 conceded, leading to a negative goal difference of -3. Although they have shown some improvement with three wins and one draw in their last five matches, their overall inconsistency this season puts them at a disadvantage against a higher-ranked opponent. The model gives Lillestrom a strong win probability based on their current standings and form, while Rosenborg's struggles could lead to further challenges in this match. However, a caveat exists; if Rosenborg manages to capitalize on set pieces or counter-attacks, they could disrupt Lillestrom's plans. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
Lillestrom have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Lillestrom are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.38 | 3.65 | 2.65 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.48 | 2.45 | |
| 2.32 | 3.54 | 2.79 | 1.60 | 2.29 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
| 2.38 | 3.75 | 2.70 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 2.36 | 3.64 | 2.86 | 1.61 | 2.35 | — | — | |
| 2.19 | 3.33 | 2.68 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.80 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.38 | 3.62 | 2.86 | 1.62 | 2.32 | 1.48 | 2.47 | |
| 2.48 | 3.50 | 2.63 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.52 | 2.30 | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.75 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.87 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.42 |
Superbet | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.87 | 1.59 | 2.27 | 1.50 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.70 | 1.57 | 2.21 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lillestrom leads 5-2)In the last ten encounters between Lillestrom and Rosenborg, Lillestrom has won 5 matches, while Rosenborg has secured 2 victories, with 1 match ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a pattern favoring Lillestrom, particularly highlighted by their significant 4-0 win in August 2024 and a 3-0 victory in September 2023. However, Rosenborg has also managed to achieve a notable win with a 3-1 result in September 2022. Overall, Lillestrom appears to have a stronger head-to-head record, with several matches being relatively high-scoring, while Rosenborg's last win came over a year ago.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 10 | Rosenborg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 18 | LWWWD |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLillestrom have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lillestrom 1-2 and beat Lillestrom 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 13L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Rosenborg have won 2 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Start 0-3 and lost to KFUM Oslo 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 12L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLillestrom
No reported absences
Rosenborg
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Kringstad has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Lillestrom have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Rosenborg 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lillestrom have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lillestrom player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
