Start vs Fredrikstad Prediction, Tips & Odds
Start vs Fredrikstad
Match Preview
The model favours Fredrikstad to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Start. Fredrikstad currently sits in 12th place in the Eliteserien table, having accumulated 14 points from 13 matches. Their season has been a mix of results, but they have shown some resilience with four wins, despite a recent dip in form that includes three consecutive losses. Their goal difference of -8 suggests defensive vulnerabilities, but they have managed to score 15 goals, indicating they can find the back of the net when needed. Start, on the other hand, is struggling at the bottom of the table in 16th place, with only 10 points from 15 matches. Their form has been particularly concerning, with just one win in their last five matches, which includes four losses. With a goal difference of -18, they have conceded significantly more goals than they have scored, which raises questions about their defensive capabilities. According to the model, Fredrikstad has a win probability of approximately 55%, while Start's chances of securing a victory are less than 30%. However, the unpredictability of football means that if Start can improve their defensive performance, they could potentially turn the tide in their favour. For a deeper dive into our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where we detail our in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Start have been the stronger side, winning 26% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Start are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Start vs Fredrikstad| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 2.12 | 3.42 | 3.24 | 1.70 | 2.11 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.17 | 3.65 | 3.35 | 1.72 | 2.18 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.18 | 2.85 | 1.82 | 2.02 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.16 | 3.52 | 3.34 | 1.72 | 2.14 | 1.57 | 2.26 | |
| 2.23 | 3.40 | 3.05 | 1.75 | 1.93 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 2.12 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 1.72 | 2.07 | 1.60 | 2.22 |
Superbet | 2.17 | 3.40 | 3.15 | 1.71 | 2.05 | 1.59 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Fredrikstad leads 4-1)In the last eight matches between Start and Fredrikstad, Fredrikstad has won 4 times, Start has won once, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches, including four that ended in draws and two matches with narrow wins. However, Fredrikstad's 6-2 victory in one match suggests they have the potential for heavy wins. Start's last win over Fredrikstad was in July 2022, highlighting a recent dominance by Fredrikstad in this fixture. Overall, the head-to-head record shows a slight edge for Fredrikstad.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 17 | WLLLW |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 | Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonStart have won 4 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Start 0-3 and beat Start 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 6D 14L from the last 27 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Fredrikstad have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Rosenborg 4-0 and lost to Bodo/Glimt 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 12L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedStart3-4-1-2Confirmed
Fredrikstad4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersStart
No reported absences
Fredrikstad
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Lien has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Start have averaged 2.7 corners per match at home; Fredrikstad 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Start have generated 1.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 26% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Start player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
