Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Prediction, Tips & Odds
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund
Match Preview
The model favours Ham-Kam to win this match against Aalesund, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned ninth in the league, Ham-Kam has shown a mixed bag of form this season, recording five wins, three draws, and six losses over 14 matches. Their goal-scoring has been decent with 20 goals, but they have also conceded 26, resulting in a goal difference of -6. Their recent form includes one win, one draw, and three losses, indicating some inconsistency, but they remain strong enough at home to be seen as the favourites. On the other hand, Aalesund finds themselves in a challenging position, sitting 13th in the standings with just two wins from their 14 matches, alongside seven draws and five losses. They have scored 19 goals but have conceded 29, leading to a goal difference of -10. Despite their struggles, Aalesund has shown some resilience in their last five matches, managing one win and three draws, which suggests they could be hard to break down. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Ham-Kam, with Aalesund at 20% and a draw at 25%. While Ham-Kam has the home advantage, their inconsistency could lead to an unexpected result if Aalesund can capitalise on any defensive lapses. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, with analysis conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Ham-Kam have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Ham-Kam are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.42 | 2.60 | |
| 2.04 | 3.76 | 3.16 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.42 | 2.61 | |
| 2.05 | 3.90 | 3.00 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 2.11 | 3.97 | 3.25 | 1.50 | 2.68 | — | — | |
| 2.14 | 3.32 | 2.77 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.09 | 3.85 | 3.24 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.42 | 2.66 | |
| 2.14 | 3.75 | 2.95 | 1.46 | 2.48 | 1.41 | 2.63 | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 2.10 | 3.55 | 3.25 | 1.52 | 2.50 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Superbet | 2.10 | 3.65 | 3.15 | 1.50 | 2.47 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.00 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aalesund leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Ham-Kam and Aalesund, Ham-Kam has won 2 times, Aalesund has won 3 times, and there have been 5 draws. This record indicates a competitive rivalry with a balanced outcome, as no team has dominated. The scorelines reflect several close encounters, particularly with five matches ending in draws, including two 2-2 results. While Aalesund has achieved a couple of heavier wins, such as the 5-2 result in 2019, overall, the majority of matches have been tightly contested, suggesting neither side has a clear upper hand in this matchup.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 8 | Ham-Kam | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 21 | WLLLD |
| 14 | Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHam-Kam have won 8 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Ham-Kam 1-4 and beat Ham-Kam 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 12L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Aalesund have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Valerenga 6-1 and beat Kristiansund BK 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 12L from the last 27 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHam-Kam5-3-2Confirmed
Aalesund3-5-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersHam-Kam
No reported absences
Aalesund
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
O. Nilsen has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Ham-Kam have averaged 3.2 corners per match at home; Aalesund 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Ham-Kam have generated 1.07 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Ham-Kam player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
