Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc
Match Preview
The model favours Vitoria to win against Chapecoense-sc, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Vitoria currently sits in 13th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 33 points from 28 matches, with a record of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses. They have struggled with consistency lately, reflected in their recent form, which shows just one win in their last five matches. However, they have a stronger goal-scoring record compared to their opponents, with 28 goals scored this season. Chapecoense-sc, on the other hand, is at the bottom of the table in 20th place, with only 18 points from 27 matches. Their season has been challenging, with just 3 wins and a goal difference of -24. Despite showing some improvement with two wins in their last five matches, they remain vulnerable defensively, having conceded 53 goals this season. Their ability to turn around their fortunes is uncertain, especially against a mid-table side like Vitoria. The model gives Vitoria a 59.5% chance of winning this match, with a 24.1% probability of a draw and a 16.5% chance for Chapecoense-sc to secure a victory. One potential caveat for Vitoria is their recent inconsistency, which could open the door for an upset if they fail to convert chances. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model utilizes expected goals and actual results to analyze fixtures.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Vitoria have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Vitoria win as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Vitoria clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Vitoria are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.52 | 4.05 | 5.85 | 1.79 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 1.47 | 4.10 | 6.00 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 1.53 | 4.32 | 6.54 | 1.84 | 2.05 | — | — | |
| 1.51 | 3.70 | 5.13 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 3.90 | 5.80 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.57 | 4.18 | 6.04 | 1.84 | 2.01 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.57 | 4.25 | 6.70 | 1.85 | 2.02 | 1.88 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.50 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Vitoria leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc, Vitoria has won 4 times, Chapecoense-sc has also won 3 times, with 3 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, highlighted by several close encounters, including four matches finishing in draws and a notable number of narrow victories. The highest margin of victory in this period was Vitoria's 4-1 win in 2016, contrasting with the more frequent tight contests, such as the 1-1 draws and 1-0 victories. The last win for Chapecoense-sc came in November 2023, suggesting a balanced yet fluctuating dynamic in their matchups.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 23 | 32 | 60 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | 26 | 57 | DWDDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 49 | WDLDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 48 | WLWDW |
| 5 |  Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 46 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 45 | WLWLW |
| 13 | Vitoria | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 | LDWLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 | LLLLL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 | DLWLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVitoria have won 16 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Cruzeiro 1-3 and lost to Vasco DA Gama 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 9D 19L from the last 48 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chapecoense-sc have won 4 of their last 25 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 15. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Chapecoense-sc 1-1 and drew with Atletico-MG 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 14D 21L from the last 47 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
17 playersVitoria10
Chapecoense-sc7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Edina Alves Batista has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Edina Alves Batista to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vitoria have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Chapecoense-sc 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Vitoria have generated 1.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Vitoria player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
